Analyzing Propagation and Duration of Station-level Disturbances in the Railway Network
(2025)Department of Automatic Control
- Abstract
- Railway networks are a critical component of modern transportation systems, but their efficiency is often challenged by disturbances that propagate through the network, leading to delays and reduced punctuality. This thesis investigates station-level disturbances and their duration, with the aim of developing a foundation for an online tool that can estimate disturbance durations. Using historical train movement data from the south of Sweden during 2018-2019, we define and analyze a novel metric called station punctuality to identify local disturbance events. The duration of these events is examined under various conditions, including different traffic intensities and time periods, to determine their distribution and relevance.... (More)
- Railway networks are a critical component of modern transportation systems, but their efficiency is often challenged by disturbances that propagate through the network, leading to delays and reduced punctuality. This thesis investigates station-level disturbances and their duration, with the aim of developing a foundation for an online tool that can estimate disturbance durations. Using historical train movement data from the south of Sweden during 2018-2019, we define and analyze a novel metric called station punctuality to identify local disturbance events. The duration of these events is examined under various conditions, including different traffic intensities and time periods, to determine their distribution and relevance. Furthermore, we use a Markov model to explore the coupling between stations, aiming to predict future punctuality based on historical patterns. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how disturbances evolve within a railway network and provide insights into potential applications for real-time delay forecasting. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9205154
- author
- Golobov, Samuel and Nyberg, Louise
- supervisor
-
- Carl-William Palmqvist LU
- Mark Jeeninga LU
- Emma Tegling LU
- Giacomo Como LU
- Richard Pates LU
- organization
- year
- 2025
- type
- H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
- subject
- report number
- TFRT-6272
- other publication id
- 0280-5316
- language
- English
- id
- 9205154
- date added to LUP
- 2025-08-08 15:13:14
- date last changed
- 2025-08-08 15:13:14
@misc{9205154,
abstract = {{Railway networks are a critical component of modern transportation systems, but their efficiency is often challenged by disturbances that propagate through the network, leading to delays and reduced punctuality. This thesis investigates station-level disturbances and their duration, with the aim of developing a foundation for an online tool that can estimate disturbance durations. Using historical train movement data from the south of Sweden during 2018-2019, we define and analyze a novel metric called station punctuality to identify local disturbance events. The duration of these events is examined under various conditions, including different traffic intensities and time periods, to determine their distribution and relevance. Furthermore, we use a Markov model to explore the coupling between stations, aiming to predict future punctuality based on historical patterns. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how disturbances evolve within a railway network and provide insights into potential applications for real-time delay forecasting.}},
author = {{Golobov, Samuel and Nyberg, Louise}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Analyzing Propagation and Duration of Station-level Disturbances in the Railway Network}},
year = {{2025}},
}