Evaluating the impact of fires and armed conflict on forest cover change in Syria

Abstract

Areas experiencing conflict are challenging to examine due to limited accessibility. Remote sensing is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate the effects of conflict on the environment. Northwestern Syria hosts most of the country’s remaining Mediterranean forests, an ecosystem that is ecologically significant for regulatory ecosystem services. Since 2011, Syria has experienced conflict, which is thought to influence fire activity, often increasing during periods of war. Previous studies in Syria’s northwest have addressed tree cover, conflict, and fire mostly separately, focusing only on conflict years. This study evaluates long-term forest cover change and its interplay with fire, armed conflict, and climate in the governorates of Idlib, Tartus, Latakia, and Hama from 2004 to 2023.

Using remote sensing data, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire products, ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation monthly climate data, Hansen Global Forest change product and conflict event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of tree cover was undertaken to provide a temporal and spatial representation of forest cover dynamics over time in conjunction with fire. Additionally, a spatial analysis using global and local Moran’s I was conducted to assess the spatial association between conflict events and fire. Lastly, Spearman rank correlations between fire and climate variables were performed as well as their z-scores calculated on a yearly basis.

Findings reveal a reduction in forest cover across all governorates, particularly from 2011, with Latakia, Hama, and Idlib experiencing the highest forest loss. Fires were found to be associated with peaks in forest loss years, with 2012 and 2020 notably experiencing high fire and tree loss. Hotspot analysis revealed concentrated areas of high fire and high conflict activity, mostly in the northern regions of Latakia, Hama, and Idlib, where peaks in fire events temporally aligned with peaks in conflict events. High fire activity in 2012, 2016, and 2020 corresponded with temperature anomalies and reduced precipitation, emphasising the role of climate as a primary environmental driver of fire, as supported by significant Spearman rank correlation analysis between climate variables and fire. A key finding is that following the onset of conflict in 2011, forest cover decreased, and fire occurrence increased paired with amplified climatic pressures.

The study concludes that forest loss in northwestern Syria cannot be attributed solely to one factor but is the outcome of a dynamic interplay between warfare, fire, and climatic conditions. By integrating long-term forest cover change with conflict, fire and climate data, this study successfully addressed its aim of evaluating their combined effects. This highlights the need for further research on forest loss, fire, and conflict, incorporating additional land cover dynamics and social factors.

Popular Abstract

How does conflict affect forests? In Northwestern Syria, some of the country’s last Mediterranean forests are silently disappearing. These forests, mostly found in the governorates of Idlib, Tartus, Latakia and Hama, are important for climate regulation, biodiversity and livelihoods, but they’ve come under growing threat. Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, concerns have grown about the long-term impact of conflict on these fragile landscapes. Fires are often suspected to increase during times of intensified violence, but the exact relationship between conflict, fire and tree cover remain unclear.

This study explores that relationship by analysing 20 years (2004–2023) of forest cover change in the region. It investigates how forest loss connects with armed conflict, fire outbreaks, and shifts in climate. The aim is to better understand how these pressures interact and what that reveals about the hidden environmental toll of war.

Since it’s too dangerous for scientists to work on the ground in war zones, this study used data collected from satellites. It looked at forest loss, fire outbreaks, weather changes and records of violent events over 20 years. By using data like global forest and fire maps, temperature and rainfall data and conflict event data, the study analysed where and when forests were lost and how it was related to fires and conflict events. Special mapping techniques were used to find places where fire and violence often happened together.

The results show notable forest loss across all four governorates, particularly from 2011 onwards. Latakia, Hama and Idlib emerged as key area for forest cover loss. High fire activity years, such as 2012, 2016 and 2020, aligned closely with peaks in forest loss, especially in areas experiencing active conflict, however indirect effects of the war also contributed to forest loss. Spatially, fire and conflict events revealed to have a clear overlap, where high conflict zones occurred near high fire zones, most noticeably in northern Latakia, and Idlib. Additionally, the study found strong correlations between fire events and climate anomalies, such as increased temperatures and reduced rainfall, demonstrating the climate’s role as a key enabler of fire outbreaks.

Overall, this research shows that forest loss in Syria cannot be explained by a single cause. Instead, it results from the combined pressures of armed conflict and its indirect effects, climate change, and fire. These forces feed into one another, accelerating forest loss and damaging ecosystems already under stress. By bringing together long-term environmental and conflict data, this project provides new insight into how nature is affected by war and highlights the need for future interdisciplinary research that includes social ecological and political factors.

• author: Coppel, Emma Alice
• supervisor: Lina Eklund
• organization: Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
• course: NGEM01 20251
• year: 2025
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Earth and Environmental Sciences
• keywords: Physical Geography, Ecosystem Analysis, fire dynamics, conflict, forest, remote sensing, Syria
• publication/series: Student thesis series INES
• report number: 727
• language: English
• id: 9205814
• date added to LUP: 2025-06-27 11:40:50
• date last changed: 2025-06-27 11:40:50