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The Electric Slide Towards Net-Zero: Pinpointing the Conditions for Heavy-Duty Emission Reductions

Sandefeldt, Karl LU and Sandwall, Carl Fredrik Tore LU (2025) In Master's Thesis in Mathematical Sciences FMSM01 20251
Mathematical Statistics
Abstract
The road freight sector’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
necessitates emission mitigating strategies to meet climate targets, such as the
Paris Agreement’s goal of 43% emission reduction. While Battery Electric
Trucks (BETs) show great potential to reach these goals, their successful integration hinges on optimization and route planning. This thesis investigates the
conditions under which a heavy-duty freight fleet can achieve substantial emission reductions through a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)-optimized Electric
Vehicle Routing Problem (EVRP), considering varying Internal Carbon Pricing
(ICP), electricity prices, and electricity carbon intensity.
Based on a case study of a German retail operator and an EVRP... (More)
The road freight sector’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
necessitates emission mitigating strategies to meet climate targets, such as the
Paris Agreement’s goal of 43% emission reduction. While Battery Electric
Trucks (BETs) show great potential to reach these goals, their successful integration hinges on optimization and route planning. This thesis investigates the
conditions under which a heavy-duty freight fleet can achieve substantial emission reductions through a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)-optimized Electric
Vehicle Routing Problem (EVRP), considering varying Internal Carbon Pricing
(ICP), electricity prices, and electricity carbon intensity.
Based on a case study of a German retail operator and an EVRP software,
baseline scenarios (TCO-optimized diesel fleet, TCO-optimized mixed fleet, and
emission-optimized mixed fleet) with present-day input parameters were established. To investigate the conditions for favourable outcomes, 100 scenarios
were generated with Latin Hypercube Sampling of the three key parameters
(ICP, energy price, energy carbon intensity). These simulations were then analyzed using the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify critical input
parameter configurations leading to outcomes of interest.
The study found that achieving a 43% emission reduction compared to a dieselonly fleet is primarily dependent on utilizing electricity with low carbon intensity
(below 0.252 kgCO2e/kWh). This reduction is economically viable (meaning
not being more costly than today) if the low-emission electricity has a price
below e 0.256/kWh. The study also finds that there are 17 European countries
whose electricity satisfies both of these thresholds. Internal Carbon Pricing
demonstrated limited direct impact on achieving the emission target under these
favorable energy conditions. However, ICP proved of importance for avoiding
worst-case scenarios - where both costs and emissions increased - particularly
when electricity prices were high (above e 0.428/kWh), by enhancing BETs’
cost-competitiveness.
To summarize, this research demonstrates that the ambitious Paris Agreement
goal for emission reduction can be achieved for heavy-duty freight transport
through the adoption of BETs powered by low-emission and affordable electricity. While the energy carbon intensity is the primary driver for emission
reductions, ICP can serve as an instrument for mitigating risks associated with
energy price volatility and steering away from economically and environmentally
unfavorable outcomes. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Sandefeldt, Karl LU and Sandwall, Carl Fredrik Tore LU
supervisor
organization
course
FMSM01 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
publication/series
Master's Thesis in Mathematical Sciences
report number
LUTFMS-3537-2025
ISSN
1404-6342
other publication id
2025:E90
language
English
id
9206452
date added to LUP
2025-06-30 10:09:14
date last changed
2025-06-30 10:09:14
@misc{9206452,
  abstract     = {{The road freight sector’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
necessitates emission mitigating strategies to meet climate targets, such as the
Paris Agreement’s goal of 43% emission reduction. While Battery Electric
Trucks (BETs) show great potential to reach these goals, their successful integration hinges on optimization and route planning. This thesis investigates the
conditions under which a heavy-duty freight fleet can achieve substantial emission reductions through a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)-optimized Electric
Vehicle Routing Problem (EVRP), considering varying Internal Carbon Pricing
(ICP), electricity prices, and electricity carbon intensity.
Based on a case study of a German retail operator and an EVRP software,
baseline scenarios (TCO-optimized diesel fleet, TCO-optimized mixed fleet, and
emission-optimized mixed fleet) with present-day input parameters were established. To investigate the conditions for favourable outcomes, 100 scenarios
were generated with Latin Hypercube Sampling of the three key parameters
(ICP, energy price, energy carbon intensity). These simulations were then analyzed using the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify critical input
parameter configurations leading to outcomes of interest.
The study found that achieving a 43% emission reduction compared to a dieselonly fleet is primarily dependent on utilizing electricity with low carbon intensity
(below 0.252 kgCO2e/kWh). This reduction is economically viable (meaning
not being more costly than today) if the low-emission electricity has a price
below e 0.256/kWh. The study also finds that there are 17 European countries
whose electricity satisfies both of these thresholds. Internal Carbon Pricing
demonstrated limited direct impact on achieving the emission target under these
favorable energy conditions. However, ICP proved of importance for avoiding
worst-case scenarios - where both costs and emissions increased - particularly
when electricity prices were high (above e 0.428/kWh), by enhancing BETs’
cost-competitiveness.
To summarize, this research demonstrates that the ambitious Paris Agreement
goal for emission reduction can be achieved for heavy-duty freight transport
through the adoption of BETs powered by low-emission and affordable electricity. While the energy carbon intensity is the primary driver for emission
reductions, ICP can serve as an instrument for mitigating risks associated with
energy price volatility and steering away from economically and environmentally
unfavorable outcomes.}},
  author       = {{Sandefeldt, Karl and Sandwall, Carl Fredrik Tore}},
  issn         = {{1404-6342}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Master's Thesis in Mathematical Sciences}},
  title        = {{The Electric Slide Towards Net-Zero: Pinpointing the Conditions for Heavy-Duty Emission Reductions}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}