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Rules, Rents and Restraints: Fiscal Stability and Resource Dependency

Authen, Elise Benedikte LU (2025) EKHS11 20251
Department of Economic History
Abstract (Swedish)
Botswana’s reputation as a beacon of fiscal prudence in resource-rich economies faces new challenges. Yet recent pressures – rising debt, declining surpluses, and fiscal volatility – raise questions about the long-term sustainability of this model. This thesis examines how Botswana’s fiscal capacity has shaped its ability to manage natural resource wealth between 1990 and 2022. Drawing on a composite Fiscal Sustainability Index (FSI), the study traces shifts in revenue mobilisation, expenditure patterns, and debt dynamics. Structural break analysis identifies 2009 and 2018 as key inflection points, marking a departure from earlier rule-based discipline. Regression analysis reveals a weakening link between fiscal stability and governance,... (More)
Botswana’s reputation as a beacon of fiscal prudence in resource-rich economies faces new challenges. Yet recent pressures – rising debt, declining surpluses, and fiscal volatility – raise questions about the long-term sustainability of this model. This thesis examines how Botswana’s fiscal capacity has shaped its ability to manage natural resource wealth between 1990 and 2022. Drawing on a composite Fiscal Sustainability Index (FSI), the study traces shifts in revenue mobilisation, expenditure patterns, and debt dynamics. Structural break analysis identifies 2009 and 2018 as key inflection points, marking a departure from earlier rule-based discipline. Regression analysis reveals a weakening link between fiscal stability and governance, suggesting that the institutional foundations that once insulated Botswana from the resource curse are now under strain. In doing so, the thesis offers a replicable framework for assessing fiscal resilience in other resource-dependent countries. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Authen, Elise Benedikte LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS11 20251
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Fiscal capacity, Resource dependency, Structural Breaks
language
English
id
9209344
date added to LUP
2025-08-25 08:39:37
date last changed
2025-08-25 08:39:37
@misc{9209344,
  abstract     = {{Botswana’s reputation as a beacon of fiscal prudence in resource-rich economies faces new challenges. Yet recent pressures – rising debt, declining surpluses, and fiscal volatility – raise questions about the long-term sustainability of this model. This thesis examines how Botswana’s fiscal capacity has shaped its ability to manage natural resource wealth between 1990 and 2022. Drawing on a composite Fiscal Sustainability Index (FSI), the study traces shifts in revenue mobilisation, expenditure patterns, and debt dynamics. Structural break analysis identifies 2009 and 2018 as key inflection points, marking a departure from earlier rule-based discipline. Regression analysis reveals a weakening link between fiscal stability and governance, suggesting that the institutional foundations that once insulated Botswana from the resource curse are now under strain. In doing so, the thesis offers a replicable framework for assessing fiscal resilience in other resource-dependent countries.}},
  author       = {{Authen, Elise Benedikte}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Rules, Rents and Restraints: Fiscal Stability and Resource Dependency}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}