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Mapping Earthquake Impact in Croatia: A comparative study of Damage Patterns in Zagreb and Petrinja (2020)

Horvat, Nina LU (2025) In Student thesis series INES NGEK01 20251
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
This thesis presents a comparative geospatial analysis of earthquake damage caused by the 2020 Croatian earthquakes, the 5.5 magnitude Zagreb earthquake and the 6.4 magnitude Petrinja earthquake.
Using only freely accessible data, including Copernicus EMS damage assessments, OpenStreetMap building footprints, and WorldPop population grids, the study explores how spatial damage patterns differed between the two locations and evaluates the effectiveness of open-source data for post-earthquake assessment.
In total, 556 buildings were analyzed in Zagreb and 1,702 in Petrinja. Severe destruction was more prevalent in Petrinja, with 5.2% (89) of buildings classified as destroyed compared to 3.8% (21) in Zagreb. Spatial analysis using Kernel... (More)
This thesis presents a comparative geospatial analysis of earthquake damage caused by the 2020 Croatian earthquakes, the 5.5 magnitude Zagreb earthquake and the 6.4 magnitude Petrinja earthquake.
Using only freely accessible data, including Copernicus EMS damage assessments, OpenStreetMap building footprints, and WorldPop population grids, the study explores how spatial damage patterns differed between the two locations and evaluates the effectiveness of open-source data for post-earthquake assessment.
In total, 556 buildings were analyzed in Zagreb and 1,702 in Petrinja. Severe destruction was more prevalent in Petrinja, with 5.2% (89) of buildings classified as destroyed compared to 3.8% (21) in Zagreb. Spatial analysis using Kernel Density Estimation and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot detection, alongside visual comparison indicated concentrated damage clusters in Zagreb’s historic core and more dispersed clusters in both urban and rural areas around Petrinja.
The results highlight how differences in geology, urban form, and construction quality shaped earthquake impacts. Zagreb’s damage was primarily in older masonry structures built on soft sedimentary basins, whereas Petrinja experienced widespread structural collapse linked to liquefaction-prone soils and non-retrofitted rural housing.
The study critically reflects on the limitations of Copernicus EMS classifications, which lack field validation, and on the comparability challenges posed by differing earthquake magnitudes and urban forms. Despite these constraints, findings emphasize the value of open-source geospatial data for the rapid, scalable earthquake damage mapping and indicate its promise in assisting disaster risk reduction and urban planning in data-scarce, seismically active regions. (Less)
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author
Horvat, Nina LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK01 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Earthquake damage assessment, Open-source geospatial data, Seismic risk, Comparative Spatial Analysis, Croatia, Zagreb, Petrinja
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
711
language
English
id
9210673
date added to LUP
2025-08-26 09:52:48
date last changed
2025-08-26 09:52:48
@misc{9210673,
  abstract     = {{This thesis presents a comparative geospatial analysis of earthquake damage caused by the 2020 Croatian earthquakes, the 5.5 magnitude Zagreb earthquake and the 6.4 magnitude Petrinja earthquake. 
Using only freely accessible data, including Copernicus EMS damage assessments, OpenStreetMap building footprints, and WorldPop population grids, the study explores how spatial damage patterns differed between the two locations and evaluates the effectiveness of open-source data for post-earthquake assessment. 
In total, 556 buildings were analyzed in Zagreb and 1,702 in Petrinja. Severe destruction was more prevalent in Petrinja, with 5.2% (89) of buildings classified as destroyed compared to 3.8% (21) in Zagreb. Spatial analysis using Kernel Density Estimation and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot detection, alongside visual comparison indicated concentrated damage clusters in Zagreb’s historic core and more dispersed clusters in both urban and rural areas around Petrinja.
The results highlight how differences in geology, urban form, and construction quality shaped earthquake impacts. Zagreb’s damage was primarily in older masonry structures built on soft sedimentary basins, whereas Petrinja experienced widespread structural collapse linked to liquefaction-prone soils and non-retrofitted rural housing.
The study critically reflects on the limitations of Copernicus EMS classifications, which lack field validation, and on the comparability challenges posed by differing earthquake magnitudes and urban forms. Despite these constraints, findings emphasize the value of open-source geospatial data for the rapid, scalable earthquake damage mapping and indicate its promise in assisting disaster risk reduction and urban planning in data-scarce, seismically active regions.}},
  author       = {{Horvat, Nina}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Student thesis series INES}},
  title        = {{Mapping Earthquake Impact in Croatia: A comparative study of Damage Patterns in Zagreb and Petrinja (2020)}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}