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The Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Iran’s Non-Oil Exports, 2010–2012

Kumar, Maansi LU and Lehmann, Paul Maurice (2025) NEKP01 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract (Swedish)
This thesis investigates the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed between 2010 and 2012 on Iran’s non-oil exports. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) as the baseline strategy, complemented by an Event Study and a standard Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model, the analysis shows that sanctions led to a sharp and persistent decline in Iran’s export performance relative to a counterfactual scenario. The SCM shows that across all HS product groups combined, Iranian exports to the U.S. decreased by more than 93% following the imposition of sanctions. The Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimates confirm this pattern, showing an ATT of 86%, which we interpret in combination with the Event Study coefficient for 2010 as then yielding large and... (More)
This thesis investigates the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed between 2010 and 2012 on Iran’s non-oil exports. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) as the baseline strategy, complemented by an Event Study and a standard Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model, the analysis shows that sanctions led to a sharp and persistent decline in Iran’s export performance relative to a counterfactual scenario. The SCM shows that across all HS product groups combined, Iranian exports to the U.S. decreased by more than 93% following the imposition of sanctions. The Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimates confirm this pattern, showing an ATT of 86%, which we interpret in combination with the Event Study coefficient for 2010 as then yielding large and statistically significant negative effects of roughly 70–80% relative to controls. The consistency of results across methods strengthens the causal interpretation and underscores the effectiveness of sanctions in restricting international trade flows. These findings contribute to the literature on the economic consequences of sanctions and provide insights into the use of trade restrictions as an instrument of foreign policy. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Kumar, Maansi LU and Lehmann, Paul Maurice
supervisor
organization
course
NEKP01 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Economic sanctions, Iran, Synthetic Control Method, Event Study, International Trade
language
English
id
9211598
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 11:13:33
date last changed
2025-09-12 11:13:33
@misc{9211598,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed between 2010 and 2012 on Iran’s non-oil exports. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) as the baseline strategy, complemented by an Event Study and a standard Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model, the analysis shows that sanctions led to a sharp and persistent decline in Iran’s export performance relative to a counterfactual scenario. The SCM shows that across all HS product groups combined, Iranian exports to the U.S. decreased by more than 93% following the imposition of sanctions. The Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimates confirm this pattern, showing an ATT of 86%, which we interpret in combination with the Event Study coefficient for 2010 as then yielding large and statistically significant negative effects of roughly 70–80% relative to controls. The consistency of results across methods strengthens the causal interpretation and underscores the effectiveness of sanctions in restricting international trade flows. These findings contribute to the literature on the economic consequences of sanctions and provide insights into the use of trade restrictions as an instrument of foreign policy.}},
  author       = {{Kumar, Maansi and Lehmann, Paul Maurice}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Iran’s Non-Oil Exports, 2010–2012}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}