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Trust the Process? - Dynamics of Institutional Trust under Populist Governments

Wallin, Julius LU (2025) NEKP01 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract
In recent years, populist support has grown while public confidence in political and economic institutions has weakened across Europe. This thesis explores the connection between these trends by asking whether populist participation in national cabinets undermines trust in domestic and supranational institutions. Using Eurobarometer surveys and election data from 25 EU member states between 2000 and 2024, I estimate dynamic difference-in-differences models of trust in national governments, parliaments, the European Union (EU), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the European Parliament (EP). Results point to modest short-run effects across institutions, but trust in the EU and EP deteriorates steadily over time. In contrast, the decline... (More)
In recent years, populist support has grown while public confidence in political and economic institutions has weakened across Europe. This thesis explores the connection between these trends by asking whether populist participation in national cabinets undermines trust in domestic and supranational institutions. Using Eurobarometer surveys and election data from 25 EU member states between 2000 and 2024, I estimate dynamic difference-in-differences models of trust in national governments, parliaments, the European Union (EU), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the European Parliament (EP). Results point to modest short-run effects across institutions, but trust in the EU and EP deteriorates steadily over time. In contrast, the decline in trust in the ECB is only temporary, and national institutions are affected far less in general. These declines are driven mainly by far-right populists and intensify when populists control a majority of cabinet posts. The findings suggest that the lasting erosion of institutional trust is driven by how populists govern, rather than by the size of their movement or the extent of their electoral support. (Less)
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author
Wallin, Julius LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKP01 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
populism, trust, event study, economic insecurity
language
English
id
9211735
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 11:18:07
date last changed
2025-09-12 11:18:07
@misc{9211735,
  abstract     = {{In recent years, populist support has grown while public confidence in political and economic institutions has weakened across Europe. This thesis explores the connection between these trends by asking whether populist participation in national cabinets undermines trust in domestic and supranational institutions. Using Eurobarometer surveys and election data from 25 EU member states between 2000 and 2024, I estimate dynamic difference-in-differences models of trust in national governments, parliaments, the European Union (EU), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the European Parliament (EP). Results point to modest short-run effects across institutions, but trust in the EU and EP deteriorates steadily over time. In contrast, the decline in trust in the ECB is only temporary, and national institutions are affected far less in general. These declines are driven mainly by far-right populists and intensify when populists control a majority of cabinet posts. The findings suggest that the lasting erosion of institutional trust is driven by how populists govern, rather than by the size of their movement or the extent of their electoral support.}},
  author       = {{Wallin, Julius}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Trust the Process? - Dynamics of Institutional Trust under Populist Governments}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}