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Gears of Global Turmoil: Sweden’s most important industry in the Wake of Crisis

Sunrise, Maria LU and Eknor, Ture LU (2025) NEKH01 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract
This thesis investigates the impacts of three major global disruptions: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage, and the Russia-Ukraine war on Sweden’s automotive exports, a critical sector contributing approximately 15% to Sweden’s total goods exports. Utilizing monthly export data from 2017 to 2024 and employing a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous inputs (SARIMAX), this study quantifies the immediate and longer-term effects of these shocks on export volumes and values. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a dramatic and significant decline in Swedish automotive exports, with shipment volumes collapsing by over 60% during the initial lockdown phase and sustained negative effects observed thereafter.... (More)
This thesis investigates the impacts of three major global disruptions: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage, and the Russia-Ukraine war on Sweden’s automotive exports, a critical sector contributing approximately 15% to Sweden’s total goods exports. Utilizing monthly export data from 2017 to 2024 and employing a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous inputs (SARIMAX), this study quantifies the immediate and longer-term effects of these shocks on export volumes and values. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a dramatic and significant decline in Swedish automotive exports, with shipment volumes collapsing by over 60% during the initial lockdown phase and sustained negative effects observed thereafter. The Suez Canal blockade, despite its high-profile disruption, showed no statistically significant impact on Swedish automotive exports, suggesting effective supply chain resilience and logistical adaptability. In contrast, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict presented complex effects, with initial impacts muted but longer-term dynamics reflecting enhanced export competitiveness partly driven by currency depreciation and strategic market diversification away from Eastern Europe. Comparisons with German automotive exports highlight both shared vulnerabilities and country-specific responses. Increased export volatility post-covid underlines heightened uncertainty in trade flows, emphasizing the need for robust resilience strategies. (Less)
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author
Sunrise, Maria LU and Eknor, Ture LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH01 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Automotive Exports, Covid-19 Pandemic, Trade Disruptions, Export Volatility
language
English
id
9214549
date added to LUP
2025-12-08 08:35:12
date last changed
2025-12-08 08:35:12
@misc{9214549,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the impacts of three major global disruptions: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal blockage, and the Russia-Ukraine war on Sweden’s automotive exports, a critical sector contributing approximately 15% to Sweden’s total goods exports. Utilizing monthly export data from 2017 to 2024 and employing a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous inputs (SARIMAX), this study quantifies the immediate and longer-term effects of these shocks on export volumes and values. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a dramatic and significant decline in Swedish automotive exports, with shipment volumes collapsing by over 60% during the initial lockdown phase and sustained negative effects observed thereafter. The Suez Canal blockade, despite its high-profile disruption, showed no statistically significant impact on Swedish automotive exports, suggesting effective supply chain resilience and logistical adaptability. In contrast, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict presented complex effects, with initial impacts muted but longer-term dynamics reflecting enhanced export competitiveness partly driven by currency depreciation and strategic market diversification away from Eastern Europe. Comparisons with German automotive exports highlight both shared vulnerabilities and country-specific responses. Increased export volatility post-covid underlines heightened uncertainty in trade flows, emphasizing the need for robust resilience strategies.}},
  author       = {{Sunrise, Maria and Eknor, Ture}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Gears of Global Turmoil: Sweden’s most important industry in the Wake of Crisis}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}