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Communicating uncertainties in climate findings – Exploring the case of sea level rise adaptation in Sweden

Al-Lazkani, Ahmad LU (2025) VRSM01 20242
Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.)
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
Abstract
Climate change poses significant challenges, demonstrated by climate threats that are becoming increasingly severe and frequent. This creates a higher need for uncertainty communication that considers risk-based decision-making. Global climate research, synthesised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a starting point for regional climate assessments, for which the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is a main producer. These assessments, in turn, provide climate information to various users in Sweden. Uncertainty signifies this entire process and can be conveyed through the IPCC’s probability estimates, which have been identified to have strengths and limitations. In order for climate... (More)
Climate change poses significant challenges, demonstrated by climate threats that are becoming increasingly severe and frequent. This creates a higher need for uncertainty communication that considers risk-based decision-making. Global climate research, synthesised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a starting point for regional climate assessments, for which the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is a main producer. These assessments, in turn, provide climate information to various users in Sweden. Uncertainty signifies this entire process and can be conveyed through the IPCC’s probability estimates, which have been identified to have strengths and limitations. In order for climate information to be useful for the user, uncertainties must be characterised and presented in ways that support decision-making. This thesis focuses on sea-level adaptation due to identified uncertainties in relation to various climate projections. The purpose of the thesis is to explore how the communication of climate uncertainties from IPCC research can inform decision-making, the way Swedish authorities quantify and manage uncertainties related to sea-level rise, and how climate information can be adapted to users' needs in climate adaptation. (Less)
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author
Al-Lazkani, Ahmad LU
supervisor
organization
course
VRSM01 20242
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Uncertainty, IPCC, climate scenarios, climate adaptation, robust decision-making, sea-level rise.
language
English
id
9216221
date added to LUP
2026-01-26 09:58:01
date last changed
2026-01-26 09:58:01
@misc{9216221,
  abstract     = {{Climate change poses significant challenges, demonstrated by climate threats that are becoming increasingly severe and frequent. This creates a higher need for uncertainty communication that considers risk-based decision-making. Global climate research, synthesised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a starting point for regional climate assessments, for which the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is a main producer. These assessments, in turn, provide climate information to various users in Sweden. Uncertainty signifies this entire process and can be conveyed through the IPCC’s probability estimates, which have been identified to have strengths and limitations. In order for climate information to be useful for the user, uncertainties must be characterised and presented in ways that support decision-making. This thesis focuses on sea-level adaptation due to identified uncertainties in relation to various climate projections. The purpose of the thesis is to explore how the communication of climate uncertainties from IPCC research can inform decision-making, the way Swedish authorities quantify and manage uncertainties related to sea-level rise, and how climate information can be adapted to users' needs in climate adaptation.}},
  author       = {{Al-Lazkani, Ahmad}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Communicating uncertainties in climate findings – Exploring the case of sea level rise adaptation in Sweden}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}