Hur tänker din fiende?
(2015) UNDK01 20151Department of Political Science
- Abstract
- It have been posited that one of the greatest challenges for intelligence analysts is to correctly understand the enemy. Is this possible, which are the traps and can the process be improved? In this essay we will try to answer these questions by applying theories from cognitive psychology, namely those of heuristics and cognitive biases. We will review the theories, see where they fit with historical intelligence failures and review current experiments which illuminate how especially the work of intelligence analysts may be impacted by the results. In addition, we will conduct a minor experiment of our own to test for hindsight bias and review methods to avoid the traps of heuristics and cognitive biases.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/5436031
- author
- Jörgensen, Johannes LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- UNDK01 20151
- year
- 2015
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- Intelligence Analysis, Heuristics, Cognitive bias
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 5436031
- date added to LUP
- 2015-11-18 14:46:37
- date last changed
- 2015-11-18 14:46:37
@misc{5436031, abstract = {{It have been posited that one of the greatest challenges for intelligence analysts is to correctly understand the enemy. Is this possible, which are the traps and can the process be improved? In this essay we will try to answer these questions by applying theories from cognitive psychology, namely those of heuristics and cognitive biases. We will review the theories, see where they fit with historical intelligence failures and review current experiments which illuminate how especially the work of intelligence analysts may be impacted by the results. In addition, we will conduct a minor experiment of our own to test for hindsight bias and review methods to avoid the traps of heuristics and cognitive biases.}}, author = {{Jörgensen, Johannes}}, language = {{swe}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{Hur tänker din fiende?}}, year = {{2015}}, }