Crowd modelling in large-scale evacuation scenarios: A modelling case study of a Festival Evacuation

Abstract

Crowd modelling tools have been used over the last years to reproduce human behaviour in different large-scale evacuation scenarios, especially in stadia, arenas or buildings. However, little research has been made in outdoor festivals where a high amount of people may gather. Although some studies have tried to explain evacuation behaviours occurring during festival incidents, further research on crowd modelling in these events needs to be conducted. The present thesis focuses on providing a review of the suitability of existing evacuation models – generally used for fire evacuation simulations- for large-scale outdoor music festival crowd evacuations, identifying the main factors affecting simulations tools and providing recommendations on the modelling methods to be used to deal with large evacuating crowds.

Abstract (Spanish)

Durante los últimos años herramientas para el modelado de multitudes han sido utilizadas para reproducir el comportamiento humano en diferentes situaciones, especialmente para evacuación de estadios, arenas o edificios. Sin embargo, escasa investigación se ha realizado en festivales al aire libre donde un gran número de personas puede reunirse. Aunque existen algunos estudios que han tratado de dar respuesta al comportamiento humano en incidentes ocurridos en festivales, resulta necesario desarrollar una investigación más exhaustiva en el modelado de multitudes para estos eventos extraordinarios. La tesis presentada aquí se ha centrado en proporcionar una revisión sobre la capacidad de los modelos de evacuación existentes –utilizados habitualmente para simulación de evacuación en caso de incendio- para simular evacuaciones masivas en festivales de música, identificando los factores que afectan principalmente a las herramientas de simulación así como proporcionando recomendaciones sobre el método de modelado a utilizar al enfrentarse a la evacuación de grandes multitudes.

Popular Abstract

Author: Francisco Javier Nieto Uriz
Title: Crowd modelling in large scale evacuation scenarios: A modelling case study of a Festival
evacuation
Department of Fire Safety Engineering. Lund University
Report: 5496 / ISSN: 140203504 / ISRN: LUTVDG/TVBB—549600—SE
Summary
The capacity of Fire tools to simulate crowd modelling in large-scale scenarios
The thesis presented has proved that Fire tools can be used to simulate Crowd in large-scale evacuation scenarios such as, an outdoor festival. The project has been focused on a realistic outdoor music festival scenario. Two main areas have been studied: Partial evacuation of a sector and crush barriers design in a stadium area. Results have given an understanding of the capability of fire evacuation tools to manage with crowd evacuation in areas where a high amount of people is expected to be. Three different scenarios were considered and interesting results have showed up about the improvements that can be made by modifying the pre-evacuation times or the door’s availability in case of a partial evacuation procedure. Moreover, the influence of their size, position and number has pointed out the importance of these factors. In the second part, crush barriers designs, the thesis has been able to provide the design characteristics of these elements that would be able to optimize their number and position while, ensuring a safe environment for the people standing there. All these, based on maximum values provided by authorities. The main need phased was to obtain more research on the possibility to use fire evacuation tools to simulate crowd evacuation in large-scale scenarios and obtain realistic results. The densities expected in each area was bigger than the usual density in regular building were less people are placed in a same area at a time. From the point of view of the crush barriers design, the need to improve these kind of set up and see how they can be used in a safe way in stand by stadiums. Results obtained have demonstrated that fire tools can be used for this kind of situations. Crowd
evacuation scenarios can be modelled and this will impact the safety of music festivals. During the last years different incidents have end up killing thousands of people and the use of this tools will provide better knowledge of human behaviour in risky situations as well as, improving the environment. For example, providing better exits’ design, locating them in specific places or
changing the way in which people are organised during evacuation procedures. In case of crush barriers, they can be design to both reduce costs and apply enough safety for attendees. Finally, pre-movement time influence has been an interesting aspect. Increasing it in some areas could reduce the total evacuation time if well combined with the total walking distance and the number of people using at the time. This fact might go against what most people may think,
which is that making people to wait more before evacuation will increase the total evacuation time.

• author: Nieto Uriz, Francisco
• supervisor: Enrico Ronchi
• organization: Division of Fire Safety Engineering
• course: VBRM05 20151
• year: 2015
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: music festival, crowd modelling, large-scale evacuation, crowd crush
• publication/series: LUTVDG/TVBB
• report number: 5496
• ISSN: 140213504
• language: English
• id: 5463090
• date added to LUP: 2015-06-04 10:37:00
• date last changed: 2015-06-04 10:37:00