Integrating climate forecast in humanitarian decision making: How to get from early warning to early action?

Abstract

Disaster risk management efforts currently focus on long-term preventive measures and post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation or distribution of water purifications tablets, medical supplies or flood response drills, which can be implemented in the period of time between the warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk of impacts. However, this precious window of time is often overlooked in the case of climate and weather forecasts, which can indicate a heightened risk of disaster but are rarely used to initiate preventive action. The aim of this thesis is to enhance knowledge about, and how to facilitate, the choices facing humanitarian actors whether to undertake preventive actions in response to climate forecasts to prevent potential impacts of a disaster. In order to meet the thesis aim, three different objectives were set. A scoping study of scientific literature was then conducted in order to meet the objectives. The search strategy under the scoping study identified 1375 papers, of which 20 were identified as primary papers relevant to the research. Data were extracted from these 20 papers to identify challenges and opportunities when implementing early actions. Five categories of challenges and three categories of opportunities were identified upon analysis. Further, papers were assessed to understand the availability and reliability of forecast at different timescales. Likewise, different aspects characterizing decision situation to undertake early action and methods to link early warning with early action were identified. The findings from this paper are expected to help researchers and practitioners in humanitarian sector to understand the challenges and opportunities involved in implementing the early action based on forecast and also benefit from the synthesized knowledge about strategies that are being undertaken to link early warning with early action.

Popular Abstract

Through reviewing the scientific literature, the thesis investigates on how climate information can be integrated into humanitarian decision making to undertake early action to reduce the potential impacts of a disaster.

Disaster risk management efforts currently focus on long-term preventive measures and post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are many short-term actions, such as evacuation or distribution of water purification tablets, medical supplies or flood response drills, which can be implemented in the timeframe between warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk of impacts. However, this window of time is often overlooked in the case of climate and weather forecasts, which can indicate a heightened risk of disaster but are rarely used to initiate early action. In light to this, the thesis aim to enhance knowledge about, and how to facilitate, the choices facing humanitarian actors whether to undertake preventive actions in response to climate forecasts to prevent potential impacts of a disaster. To meet the thesis aim, three different research questions were addressed particularly focusing on constraints and opportunities in implementing the early action based on early warning, the availability and reliability of climate forecasts for humanitarian decision making, and how to link early warning with early action. A scoping study of scientific literature was used as a method of data collection. Based on the identified 20 primary papers, data were extracted to address the research questions. As highlighted by the scoping study, five constraints and three opportunities were identified. As such nature of forecasts, poor communication of forecasts, institutional barriers, low capacity to act on forecasts, and lack of trust and credibility in forecasts were identified as major constraints whereas early action funding, the partnership with the scientific institution and capacity building were identified as opportunities. Humanitarian decision that is taken could cover wide range of possible actions. These actions are “no regrets” actions: low-cost actions and intervention that do not go to waste even if the forecasted event does not take place. Undertaking no-regret action largely depends on the forecast at multiple timescales. Usually the forecast ranging from seasonal to short range timescales are most frequently used for humanitarian decision making. In terms of forecast accuracy, short range forecasts are more accurate and hold less uncertainty than seasonal forecast. Considering the high degree of uncertainty, seasonal forecast can be used for planning actions so that the actions are implemented timely and correctly at a time when warnings are issued. On the other hand, as short-range forecasts are increasingly able to estimate the likelihood of extreme events and also where and when an extreme event is approaching, it, therefore, allows for the head start in taking action. I believe that these findings would be helpful for the researchers and practitioners in humanitarian sector to understand the challenges and opportunities involved in implementing the early action based on forecast and also benefit from the synthesized knowledge about strategies that are being undertaken to link early warning with early action.

• author: Bajracharya, Reena
• supervisor: Henrik Tehler
• organization: Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
• course: VBRM15 20181
• year: 2018
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• language: English
• id: 8950582
• date added to LUP: 2018-06-19 12:48:58
• date last changed: 2018-06-19 12:48:58