Nyproducerade bostäders samband med prisutvecklingen på den befintliga marknaden
(2019) VFTM01 20182Real Estate Science
- Abstract
- In recent years, there has been an increase in new housing, which may imply a large price risk in the Swedish housing market. When investigating the new housing and price levels in different municipalities, the developments are different. The municipalities do not follow the same pattern.
In this thesis, the relation between new housing and development in price is studied, as well as how new housing influences the development in price in the existing small house market.
Theories are described in microeconomics, real estate economics and regression analysis. Basically, there are theories in supply and demand that are used to explain the market. Due to the special nature of real estate there are certain restrictions and adaptation... (More) - In recent years, there has been an increase in new housing, which may imply a large price risk in the Swedish housing market. When investigating the new housing and price levels in different municipalities, the developments are different. The municipalities do not follow the same pattern.
In this thesis, the relation between new housing and development in price is studied, as well as how new housing influences the development in price in the existing small house market.
Theories are described in microeconomics, real estate economics and regression analysis. Basically, there are theories in supply and demand that are used to explain the market. Due to the special nature of real estate there are certain restrictions and adaptation requirements for the real estate market. A useful tool when studying the real estate market is the 4Q model.
A discussion is being held about how new housing and price developments can affect each other based on the work question: Does differences in new housing give a measurable effect on price developments in the existing market in the municipalities?
The discussion leads to a model specification. Two regression models are created with the development in price as the dependent variable and addition of small houses as an independent variable. Additional independent variables are added to investigate whether these explain price developments better. Observations are made by 100 municipalities for ten years.
The models are analysed by studying the correlation between the variables and each variables significance in the models. To check that the values of the variables in the models are consistent with the underlying theory, a study of the coefficients is also made.
The correlation between price developments and the addition of small houses is low, which indicates that the development in price cannot be explained solely by the variable for the addition of small houses. In the regression models, the variables for the addition of single-family houses are significant.
The work concludes with the conclusion that there is a measurable effect between new production and price developments in the existing market. The municipalities with high construction rates have lower price developments. (Less) - Abstract (Swedish)
- Under de senaste åren har man sett en kraftig ökning av bostadsbyggandet, vilket kan innebära en stor prisrisk på den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Vid studerande av tillskottet av bostäder och prisnivån i olika kommuner ser utvecklingen dock olika ut. Kommunerna följer inte samma mönster.
I detta arbete studeras sambandet mellan nyproduktion av bostäder och prisutvecklingen, samt utreds hur nyproduktionen påverkar prisutvecklingen på den befintliga småhusmarknaden.
En genomgång görs av den vetenskapliga grund som arbetet bygger på. Teorier beskrivs inom mikroekonomi och fastighetsekonomi samt beskrivs modeller inom regressionsanalys. I grunden är det teorier inom utbud och efterfrågan som används för att förklara hur en marknad fungerar. På... (More) - Under de senaste åren har man sett en kraftig ökning av bostadsbyggandet, vilket kan innebära en stor prisrisk på den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Vid studerande av tillskottet av bostäder och prisnivån i olika kommuner ser utvecklingen dock olika ut. Kommunerna följer inte samma mönster.
I detta arbete studeras sambandet mellan nyproduktion av bostäder och prisutvecklingen, samt utreds hur nyproduktionen påverkar prisutvecklingen på den befintliga småhusmarknaden.
En genomgång görs av den vetenskapliga grund som arbetet bygger på. Teorier beskrivs inom mikroekonomi och fastighetsekonomi samt beskrivs modeller inom regressionsanalys. I grunden är det teorier inom utbud och efterfrågan som används för att förklara hur en marknad fungerar. På grund av fastigheters speciella karaktär finns vissa begränsningar och anpassningskrav för fastighetsmarknaden. Ett verktyg som är användbart vid studerande av fastighetsmarknaden är 4Q-modellen.
Efter genomgången av teorin förs en diskussion om hur nyproduktion av bostäder och prisutvecklingen teoretiskt kan påverka varandra med utgångspunkt från arbetets frågeställning: Ger skillnader i nybyggnationen en mätbar effekt på prisutvecklingen på den befintliga marknaden i kommunerna?
Diskussionen leder fram till en modellspecifikation. Två regressionsmodeller skapas med prisutvecklingen som undersökningsvariabel och tillskottet på marknaden som förklarande variabel. Ytterligare förklarande variabler läggs till för att undersöka om dessa förklarar prisutvecklingen bättre. Observationer görs av 100 kommuner under tio år.
Modellerna analyseras genom att studera korrelationen mellan variablerna och varje variabels signifikans i modellerna. För att kontrollera att variablernas värden i modellerna stämmer överens med den bakomliggande teorin görs även en teckenstudie av koefficienterna.
Korrelationen mellan prisutvecklingen och tillskottet av småhus är låg vilket tyder på att prisutvecklingen inte kan förklaras enbart av variabeln för tillskottet av småhus. I regressionsmodellerna är variablerna för tillskottet av småhus signifikanta.
Arbetet avslutas med slutsatsen att det finns en mätbar effekt mellan nyproduktionen och prisutvecklingen på den befintliga marknaden. De kommunerna med hög byggtakt har lägre prisutveckling. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8974447
- author
- Alm, Josefin LU
- supervisor
- organization
- alternative title
- The relation between new housing and development in price in the existing market
- course
- VFTM01 20182
- year
- 2019
- type
- H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
- subject
- keywords
- Nyproduktion, prisutveckling, småhusmarknad, 4Q-modell, regression
- other publication id
- ISRN/LUTVDG/TVLM/19/5440 SE
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 8974447
- date added to LUP
- 2019-06-25 10:34:29
- date last changed
- 2019-06-25 10:34:29
@misc{8974447,
abstract = {{In recent years, there has been an increase in new housing, which may imply a large price risk in the Swedish housing market. When investigating the new housing and price levels in different municipalities, the developments are different. The municipalities do not follow the same pattern.
In this thesis, the relation between new housing and development in price is studied, as well as how new housing influences the development in price in the existing small house market.
Theories are described in microeconomics, real estate economics and regression analysis. Basically, there are theories in supply and demand that are used to explain the market. Due to the special nature of real estate there are certain restrictions and adaptation requirements for the real estate market. A useful tool when studying the real estate market is the 4Q model.
A discussion is being held about how new housing and price developments can affect each other based on the work question: Does differences in new housing give a measurable effect on price developments in the existing market in the municipalities?
The discussion leads to a model specification. Two regression models are created with the development in price as the dependent variable and addition of small houses as an independent variable. Additional independent variables are added to investigate whether these explain price developments better. Observations are made by 100 municipalities for ten years.
The models are analysed by studying the correlation between the variables and each variables significance in the models. To check that the values of the variables in the models are consistent with the underlying theory, a study of the coefficients is also made.
The correlation between price developments and the addition of small houses is low, which indicates that the development in price cannot be explained solely by the variable for the addition of small houses. In the regression models, the variables for the addition of single-family houses are significant.
The work concludes with the conclusion that there is a measurable effect between new production and price developments in the existing market. The municipalities with high construction rates have lower price developments.}},
author = {{Alm, Josefin}},
language = {{swe}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Nyproducerade bostäders samband med prisutvecklingen på den befintliga marknaden}},
year = {{2019}},
}