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Financial Anomalies in Social Media – Analyzing Potential Effects of Donald Trump’s Tweets on the Stock Market

Wolff, Ludwig LU (2020) NEKH02 20201
Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper examines the potential effects of Donald Trump’s Twitter activity on the stock market. This is investigated with different methods starting out with limiting Trump’s tweets into tweets including four potentially impactful keywords as well as classifying the tweets into different senti-ments. To further test the theory of the tweets possible effect on the market an event study was constructed for each keyword and respective sentiment. Although an impact has been suggested on company specific tweets no statistically significant effects of Trump’s tweets can be determined on the overall market, concluding that no beneficial trading possibilities or anomalies are found using the classifications and methods demonstrated in this... (More)
This paper examines the potential effects of Donald Trump’s Twitter activity on the stock market. This is investigated with different methods starting out with limiting Trump’s tweets into tweets including four potentially impactful keywords as well as classifying the tweets into different senti-ments. To further test the theory of the tweets possible effect on the market an event study was constructed for each keyword and respective sentiment. Although an impact has been suggested on company specific tweets no statistically significant effects of Trump’s tweets can be determined on the overall market, concluding that no beneficial trading possibilities or anomalies are found using the classifications and methods demonstrated in this paper. However, a few patterns can be discovered as well as a strong positive correlation between Trump’s weekly number of tweets about tariffs and Russian collusion and the weekly Google search activity for those two keywords. Further studies into smaller markets or other approaches may present more significant findings. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Wolff, Ludwig LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH02 20201
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
President Donald Trump, Twitter, Stock Market, Event Study, Sentiment Analysis.
language
English
id
9012527
date added to LUP
2020-08-29 11:27:52
date last changed
2020-08-29 11:27:52
@misc{9012527,
  abstract     = {{This paper examines the potential effects of Donald Trump’s Twitter activity on the stock market. This is investigated with different methods starting out with limiting Trump’s tweets into tweets including four potentially impactful keywords as well as classifying the tweets into different senti-ments. To further test the theory of the tweets possible effect on the market an event study was constructed for each keyword and respective sentiment. Although an impact has been suggested on company specific tweets no statistically significant effects of Trump’s tweets can be determined on the overall market, concluding that no beneficial trading possibilities or anomalies are found using the classifications and methods demonstrated in this paper. However, a few patterns can be discovered as well as a strong positive correlation between Trump’s weekly number of tweets about tariffs and Russian collusion and the weekly Google search activity for those two keywords. Further studies into smaller markets or other approaches may present more significant findings.}},
  author       = {{Wolff, Ludwig}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Financial Anomalies in Social Media – Analyzing Potential Effects of Donald Trump’s Tweets on the Stock Market}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}