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What will be needed in terms of savings and investments to offset the impact of population growth and achieve sustainable development?

Pauli, Johanna LU (2020) EKHS34 20201
Department of Economic History
Abstract
Evidence is indicating that human activity within the Anthropocene, the proposed geological epoch of the current time, are causing extraction of natural resources and land, terraforming, climate change and mass extinction of species (Anthropocene: The Human Epoch, 2018). The identified environmental pressure will continue to grow as the global population is expected to reach 11 billion before the end of the 21st century (UN, 2019, p.1). Hence, estimating and communicating the impact of, and compensation for, human activity is essential. This thesis presents a forecast of the necessary increase in savings and investments for Sweden between 2017-2047 to offset the impact of human activities and achieve sustainable development. From an... (More)
Evidence is indicating that human activity within the Anthropocene, the proposed geological epoch of the current time, are causing extraction of natural resources and land, terraforming, climate change and mass extinction of species (Anthropocene: The Human Epoch, 2018). The identified environmental pressure will continue to grow as the global population is expected to reach 11 billion before the end of the 21st century (UN, 2019, p.1). Hence, estimating and communicating the impact of, and compensation for, human activity is essential. This thesis presents a forecast of the necessary increase in savings and investments for Sweden between 2017-2047 to offset the impact of human activities and achieve sustainable development. From an elaborated time-series of genuine savings (GS), an alternative measure to GDP, extending from 1850 to 2017, this study have quantitatively identified what will be needed for intergenerational equity. In accordance to three constructed scenarios, the results identified that a population growth similar to, or greater than, the current will require GS as % GDP for Sweden to increase with at least 69 % to 2047. In contrast, a population growth close to zero will allow GS as % GDP to decrease with 16.5 % to 2047. The forecast provides a good indication of how non-declining wealth and utility should be achieved. In practice however, substantially more effort will be required for sustainable development. (Less)
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author
Pauli, Johanna LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
A forecast of Swedish genuine savings between 2017-2047
course
EKHS34 20201
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Sustainable development, weak sustainability, strong sustainability, genuine savings, population growth
language
English
id
9021164
date added to LUP
2020-07-03 12:09:45
date last changed
2020-07-03 12:09:45
@misc{9021164,
  abstract     = {{Evidence is indicating that human activity within the Anthropocene, the proposed geological epoch of the current time, are causing extraction of natural resources and land, terraforming, climate change and mass extinction of species (Anthropocene: The Human Epoch, 2018). The identified environmental pressure will continue to grow as the global population is expected to reach 11 billion before the end of the 21st century (UN, 2019, p.1). Hence, estimating and communicating the impact of, and compensation for, human activity is essential. This thesis presents a forecast of the necessary increase in savings and investments for Sweden between 2017-2047 to offset the impact of human activities and achieve sustainable development. From an elaborated time-series of genuine savings (GS), an alternative measure to GDP, extending from 1850 to 2017, this study have quantitatively identified what will be needed for intergenerational equity. In accordance to three constructed scenarios, the results identified that a population growth similar to, or greater than, the current will require GS as % GDP for Sweden to increase with at least 69 % to 2047. In contrast, a population growth close to zero will allow GS as % GDP to decrease with 16.5 % to 2047. The forecast provides a good indication of how non-declining wealth and utility should be achieved. In practice however, substantially more effort will be required for sustainable development.}},
  author       = {{Pauli, Johanna}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{What will be needed in terms of savings and investments to offset the impact of population growth and achieve sustainable development?}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}