Climate Adaptation Strategies and Projections on Water Discharge in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin

Abstract

The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the climate adaptation strategies regarding water resources in the regional context of the three major riparians of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers: Turkey, Syria and Iraq. The objectives are: to base the analysis on the criteria benefit, consequences and limits to the social as well as the technical factors affecting the water availability and to use WW-HYPE, which is a HBV based model, to support literature on climate projections in the area. Water discharge projections reveal that the peak in flow rate will change, in the years 2041-2070 in relation to reference values from 1971-2000, with on an average (of three locations in the basin) -18 % for a RCP4.5 emission scenario. The projected water discharge decrease is larger in the north of the basin which is also the location of the rivers headwaters in Turkey. The downstream riparians are less effected by the natural water discharge change, but will suffer the effects of being in a disadvantaged position downstream. Syria is the country of the three with the highest amount of water discharge per capita. The adaptations measures evaluated are virtual water, desalination, re-use of wastewater, improvements on infrastructure and irrigation, water pricing and implementation of a trilateral treaty. This thesis highlights the importance of diversication of measures and the involvement of communities for acceptance of policy. There is a need for supply-side measures as well as conservation techniques. Although collaboration over borders would be preferable in the basin, a possibility to implement a trilateral treaty is not expected in the near future.

Popular Abstract

Climate projections have revealed that the peak flow in the Euphrates and Tigris river basin in Turkey, Syria and Iraq will decrease by 18-32 \%. Measures to adapt to the new climate situation have been investigated and a diversification of measures is highlighted.

The Middle East is a place that will be largely affected by climate change, as temperatures will increase and precipitation decrease while populations grow. The Euphrates and Tigris rivers are important sources of water, and have been since the beginning of civilisations, it is along these rivers that the Garden of Eden is legend to have been located.

This thesis evaluates the climate adaptation strategies regarding water resources in the Euphrates and Tigris river basin for the three major riparians: Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Benefits, consequences and limits to the social as well as the technical factors in the region have been investigated. Climate projections, performed using a HBV-based model created by SMHI shows how the flow of the rivers is projected to change in case of different climate scenarios.

For a stabilisation climate scenario, in which global temperature in relation to pre-industrial times will likely be increased by 2°C the peak flow rate will decrease, in the years 2041-2070 in relation to reference values from 1971-2000, with on an average (of three locations in the basin) 18 \%. For a very high emission scenario, which is as likely as not to cause an increase of 4°C, the decrease on average flow is 32 \%. The peak flow will also occur earlier in the season, affecting agricultural seasons which are very important for the three countries.

The flow will decrease more in the north of the basin which is where Turkey and Syria are located. Syria and Iraq being downstream Turkey, will be more affected because of the dependence of the countries closer to the headwaters. When comparing the population growth of the countries with the diminishing flow of the rivers, it is clear that Syria is the country that has the highest flow rate / capita, and Turkey has the lowest. But Iraq on the other hand, is more dependent on the water from these rivers than the other two.

There is a need for measures concerning water supply as well as methods to save water. Water harvesting is installing water tanks or diversion canals to collect rainwater, with large benefits. Re-using wastewater and desalination treatments are methods that require investment and, especially in the case of desalination, energy supply.

Water pricing is a method that can encourage water saving but comes with economical and political limits, for example, there is a fuel cost for pumping that indirectly already prices the water in some areas, and in other areas there is ongoing privatisation which affects the management. Companies that make profit from water fees are not motivated to reduce water use.

Another method of a reducing the water need is importing "virtual water" in form of food, instead of consuming water by producing it in the area. Food products can be evaluated on their nutritional content and their water footprint to make wise choices of what to produce and what to import. There is also the issue of food security.

Although collaboration over borders would be preferable a possibility to implement a trilateral treaty is not expected in the near future due to a history of tension between the countries involved. This thesis highlights the importance of diversification of measures and the involvement of communities for acceptance of policy. Involving people in planning and decision making increases likeliness that infrastructure will be maintained properly. For this to be the case, training and information to the community is important as well.
To make long-term plans with a basin wide perspective that takes equity and efficiency in to account, is an important but challenging outlook for the future.

• author: Mourujärvi, Marika
• supervisor: Ronny Berndtsson
• organization: Division of Water Resources Engineering
• course: VVRM05 20201
• year: 2020
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: Climate Adaptation: Climate projections: Water Discharge: Transboundary Issues: Euphrates-Tigris River Basin: Middle East
• publication/series: TVVR20/5017
• report number: 20/5017
• ISSN: 1101-9824
• language: English
• additional info: Examiner: Hossein Hashemi
• id: 9032034
• date added to LUP: 2020-11-19 13:13:45
• date last changed: 2020-11-19 13:13:45