Vädertrender för skogsbränder, en analys av insatsdata och observerade väderdata
(2021) VBRM01 20202Division of Fire Safety Engineering
- Abstract
- The work aimed to investigate the possible correlations between observed weather data and wildland fires. Initially, a literature study was conducted to find which weather variables that affect the occurrence and size of these fires. A selection was made based on the theory, where available weather data and data from wildfire rescue operations were divided into independent and dependent variables. These were analyzed in a multiple linear regression analysis to develop models to predict the needed resources and fire size. The models developed with multiple linear regression for the county of Värmland in Sweden provided insufficient precision to predict the needed resources and fire size on weather data alone. It showed however the variables... (More)
- The work aimed to investigate the possible correlations between observed weather data and wildland fires. Initially, a literature study was conducted to find which weather variables that affect the occurrence and size of these fires. A selection was made based on the theory, where available weather data and data from wildfire rescue operations were divided into independent and dependent variables. These were analyzed in a multiple linear regression analysis to develop models to predict the needed resources and fire size. The models developed with multiple linear regression for the county of Värmland in Sweden provided insufficient precision to predict the needed resources and fire size on weather data alone. It showed however the variables with the highest degree of explanation. Selected variables were then analyzed individually to produce correlations for the origin of the fires, resource claims and size, and were compared with the county of Dalarna. Temperature and relative humidity had the greatest influence on the occurrence of fires, which was demonstrated in both the analysis of the individual variables and in theory. The size of a fire was mainly affected by relative humidity and the average precipitation for 14 days according to the multiple linear regression analysis, the theory indicates that the wind speed should also have a large effect on the fire size. The needed resources was affected by temperature, relative humidity, and average precipitation for 14 days. The relationships between occurrence, size, and needed resources for wildland fires where mainly exponential for temperature, relative humidity, and the average precipitation for 14 days. For windspeed it was found that occurrence, size and needed resources went up with increasing windspeed until a critical speed was met. Speeds higher than the critical windspeed generated constant or decreasing values for the behavior of the fire. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9036542
- author
- Röstén, Tobias LU and Brandt, Viktor LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- VBRM01 20202
- year
- 2021
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- Brandriskindex, Brandväder, Korrelationsanalys, Multipel linjär regressionsanalys, Skogsbrand, Skogsbränder.
- report number
- 5633
- other publication id
- ISRN: LUTVDG/TVBB--5633--SE
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 9036542
- date added to LUP
- 2021-01-22 13:54:56
- date last changed
- 2021-01-22 13:54:56
@misc{9036542,
abstract = {{The work aimed to investigate the possible correlations between observed weather data and wildland fires. Initially, a literature study was conducted to find which weather variables that affect the occurrence and size of these fires. A selection was made based on the theory, where available weather data and data from wildfire rescue operations were divided into independent and dependent variables. These were analyzed in a multiple linear regression analysis to develop models to predict the needed resources and fire size. The models developed with multiple linear regression for the county of Värmland in Sweden provided insufficient precision to predict the needed resources and fire size on weather data alone. It showed however the variables with the highest degree of explanation. Selected variables were then analyzed individually to produce correlations for the origin of the fires, resource claims and size, and were compared with the county of Dalarna. Temperature and relative humidity had the greatest influence on the occurrence of fires, which was demonstrated in both the analysis of the individual variables and in theory. The size of a fire was mainly affected by relative humidity and the average precipitation for 14 days according to the multiple linear regression analysis, the theory indicates that the wind speed should also have a large effect on the fire size. The needed resources was affected by temperature, relative humidity, and average precipitation for 14 days. The relationships between occurrence, size, and needed resources for wildland fires where mainly exponential for temperature, relative humidity, and the average precipitation for 14 days. For windspeed it was found that occurrence, size and needed resources went up with increasing windspeed until a critical speed was met. Speeds higher than the critical windspeed generated constant or decreasing values for the behavior of the fire.}},
author = {{Röstén, Tobias and Brandt, Viktor}},
language = {{swe}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Vädertrender för skogsbränder, en analys av insatsdata och observerade väderdata}},
year = {{2021}},
}