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Drought, Mechanisms and Terror: The role of crop harvests in increasing the intensity of terrorism.

Bressler, Thomas LU (2021) STVM20 20211
Department of Political Science
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate whether crops are a mechanism through which drought affects terrorist activity. The theory suggests that drought can affect conflict if the group or country affected also is dependent on agriculture, experiences low economic development and is politically excluded. This study adds the perspective that decreased crop harvests, due to drought, can be understood as economic shocks through the opportunity cost effect. Previous research indicates that the current big question within the climate-conflict field is how climate change affects conflict. This study employs a time series panel data approach and concludes that decreased harvests of millet can be one, of many mechanisms, through which drought... (More)
The aim of this study is to investigate whether crops are a mechanism through which drought affects terrorist activity. The theory suggests that drought can affect conflict if the group or country affected also is dependent on agriculture, experiences low economic development and is politically excluded. This study adds the perspective that decreased crop harvests, due to drought, can be understood as economic shocks through the opportunity cost effect. Previous research indicates that the current big question within the climate-conflict field is how climate change affects conflict. This study employs a time series panel data approach and concludes that decreased harvests of millet can be one, of many mechanisms, through which drought affects conflict in a sample of sub-Saharan countries. Establishing causal factors, like this study tries to do, could help us more effectively mitigate the effects drought have on fragile states in a warming climate. Another contribution is that it tests whether drought anomalies has had an impact on terrorist activity and concludes that the results show a significant positive trend when tested over time and space. (Less)
Popular Abstract
This study investigates whether crops could be a mechanism through which drought affects terrorism within countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It builds upon theory suggesting that drought might affect conflict in areas inhibiting high agricultural dependence, low economic development as well as high degrees of political exclusion. It suggests that the way in which this transpires is through the 'opportunity cost effect', which states that when prices of labor-intensive products decrease, conflict increases. It finds that millet can be one such mechanism and that drought has an effect on the intensity of terrorist activity within these countries.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Bressler, Thomas LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVM20 20211
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Climate Change, Drought, Terrorism, Conflict, Food Insecurity, Economic Shocks
language
English
id
9045077
date added to LUP
2021-07-06 11:13:40
date last changed
2021-07-06 11:13:40
@misc{9045077,
  abstract     = {{The aim of this study is to investigate whether crops are a mechanism through which drought affects terrorist activity. The theory suggests that drought can affect conflict if the group or country affected also is dependent on agriculture, experiences low economic development and is politically excluded. This study adds the perspective that decreased crop harvests, due to drought, can be understood as economic shocks through the opportunity cost effect. Previous research indicates that the current big question within the climate-conflict field is how climate change affects conflict. This study employs a time series panel data approach and concludes that decreased harvests of millet can be one, of many mechanisms, through which drought affects conflict in a sample of sub-Saharan countries. Establishing causal factors, like this study tries to do, could help us more effectively mitigate the effects drought have on fragile states in a warming climate. Another contribution is that it tests whether drought anomalies has had an impact on terrorist activity and concludes that the results show a significant positive trend when tested over time and space.}},
  author       = {{Bressler, Thomas}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Drought, Mechanisms and Terror: The role of crop harvests in increasing the intensity of terrorism.}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}