Skip to main content

LUP Student Papers

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Combining Continuous and Event-based Hydrological Modeling in Kävlinge River Basin with HEC-HMS

Hu, Wenli LU (2022) In TVVR22/5010 VVRM01 20221
Division of Water Resources Engineering
Abstract
Prediction of flood and evaluation of the impact of climate change in a catchment needs to be correctly estimated, which can be accomplished by hydrological modelling in HEC-HMS. In this paper, the objectives were to gain an understanding of the rainfall-runoff process and estimate the flood frequency curve in the Kävlinge River Basin. However, due to the complexity of a catchment, models should be well-calibrated and validated in order to increase predictive ability. The flood frequency estimation through simulation can be addressed through continuous or event-based hydrological modelling. Firstly, because of the data availability for short-term storms and initial soil moisture conditions, continuous models are calibrated and validated in... (More)
Prediction of flood and evaluation of the impact of climate change in a catchment needs to be correctly estimated, which can be accomplished by hydrological modelling in HEC-HMS. In this paper, the objectives were to gain an understanding of the rainfall-runoff process and estimate the flood frequency curve in the Kävlinge River Basin. However, due to the complexity of a catchment, models should be well-calibrated and validated in order to increase predictive ability. The flood frequency estimation through simulation can be addressed through continuous or event-based hydrological modelling. Firstly, because of the data availability for short-term storms and initial soil moisture conditions, continuous models are calibrated and validated in different years. Afterwards, the identical parameters can be used for the event-based simulation. The hypothetical storm method was used to construct flood frequency curves of different return periods. Finally, all the above simulations were carried out with climate change scenario RCP8.5.
The result shows that the Curve Number (CN), initial abstraction (Ia) and Lag time are the crucial parameters for the rainfall-runoff modelling. The statistical analysis of Coefficient of Determination (R2), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and model Peak error (%) efficiency criteria were used for performance evaluation at three stations (Högsmölla, Ellinge and Vombsjön). Most of the statistics are within an acceptable range (±30%) except the values at Vombsjön due to the regulated flow, which indicates the good performance of the hydrological modelling. As well as this, the hydrological model with RCP8.5 climate change scenario is used to evaluate the effects of climate change on continuous and flood events simulation. There are around 24% and 20% increases in peak flow respectively compared with the current condition. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Hu, Wenli LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Flood Frequency Analysis
course
VVRM01 20221
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
HEC-HMS, SCS-CN, Climate Change, GIS, Flood
publication/series
TVVR22/5010
report number
22/5010
ISSN
1101-9824
language
English
additional info
Examiner:Erik Nilsson
id
9087504
date added to LUP
2022-06-13 09:07:54
date last changed
2022-06-13 09:07:54
@misc{9087504,
  abstract     = {{Prediction of flood and evaluation of the impact of climate change in a catchment needs to be correctly estimated, which can be accomplished by hydrological modelling in HEC-HMS. In this paper, the objectives were to gain an understanding of the rainfall-runoff process and estimate the flood frequency curve in the Kävlinge River Basin. However, due to the complexity of a catchment, models should be well-calibrated and validated in order to increase predictive ability. The flood frequency estimation through simulation can be addressed through continuous or event-based hydrological modelling. Firstly, because of the data availability for short-term storms and initial soil moisture conditions, continuous models are calibrated and validated in different years. Afterwards, the identical parameters can be used for the event-based simulation. The hypothetical storm method was used to construct flood frequency curves of different return periods. Finally, all the above simulations were carried out with climate change scenario RCP8.5.
The result shows that the Curve Number (CN), initial abstraction (Ia) and Lag time are the crucial parameters for the rainfall-runoff modelling. The statistical analysis of Coefficient of Determination (R2), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and model Peak error (%) efficiency criteria were used for performance evaluation at three stations (Högsmölla, Ellinge and Vombsjön). Most of the statistics are within an acceptable range (±30%) except the values at Vombsjön due to the regulated flow, which indicates the good performance of the hydrological modelling. As well as this, the hydrological model with RCP8.5 climate change scenario is used to evaluate the effects of climate change on continuous and flood events simulation. There are around 24% and 20% increases in peak flow respectively compared with the current condition.}},
  author       = {{Hu, Wenli}},
  issn         = {{1101-9824}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{TVVR22/5010}},
  title        = {{Combining Continuous and Event-based Hydrological Modeling in Kävlinge River Basin with HEC-HMS}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}