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The relation between extreme heat and ENSO and characterization of health risks in relation to varying levels of UTCI

Svensson, Emanuel LU (2022) MAMM10 20221
Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology
Abstract
As a result of climate change, temperatures have been steadily increasing in the last half
century and extreme weather events such as storms, extreme heat, extreme precipitation
and cold spells have been observed to occur more frequently. This comes with potential
consequences for lives and health. There are several factors affecting the climate in a region.
A phenomenon that has a large impact in the pacific region is the El niño southern oscillation
(ENSO) which dictates variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. In this
study an ENSO index called ONI was used to represent ENSO and the relationship between
high temperature and ONI was investigated. Additionally, five different health outcomes were
analyzed to see... (More)
As a result of climate change, temperatures have been steadily increasing in the last half
century and extreme weather events such as storms, extreme heat, extreme precipitation
and cold spells have been observed to occur more frequently. This comes with potential
consequences for lives and health. There are several factors affecting the climate in a region.
A phenomenon that has a large impact in the pacific region is the El niño southern oscillation
(ENSO) which dictates variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. In this
study an ENSO index called ONI was used to represent ENSO and the relationship between
high temperature and ONI was investigated. Additionally, five different health outcomes were
analyzed to see how they were affected by different levels of the Universal Thermal Climate
Index (UTCI) which is a climate index that is based on several atmospheric variables. This
thesis is part of the Belmont collaborative AWARD-APR project and the health data was
collected through contacts within the project. The data used is daily mortality count for the
ICD10 codes X30, X32, I50.0, I50.1 and I50.9 for the period 2008 to 2019. The UTCI data
was acquired through an open source database from Copernicus, European Union’s Earth
Observation Programme. The data was processed into daily average and maximum UTCI for
the period 2008 to 2019. To see if there was a relation between extreme heat and ONI in
Taiwan, linear regression models were applied. To investigate the relation between the health
outcomes and UTCI, a Poisson regression model was used to describe the incidence. The results
indicate that there is a positive relation between 95th percentile average daily temperature
during June, July and August in the southern and mid-western parts of Taiwan. Further
there is a rather weak indication of a positive relation between average monthly temperature
and ONI in the winter and spring months. The results of the health analysis indicate that
there is an increased risk of mortality due to these health outcomes during cold conditions.
The main reason for the health outcomes being sensitive to low UTCI intervals(<5 ◦C) is
that the cardiovascular health outcomes that were included exhibit this trend. The two health
outcomes strictly related to heat seem to exhibit the opposite relation although their incidence
is rather low to begin with, making the model uncertain. The results show that there is a
possibility to use ONI to predict when there will be extreme heat in some regions. Thereby,
ONI could indirectly be used to predict when the incidence for certain health outcomes is
more prone to increase. For two regions there seemed to be an increase for all health outcomes
with increasing UTCI. Thereby the relation between extreme heat and ONI might be useful
for predicting and preventing mortality in these regions. For the majority of the regions,
cold conditions implicate an increase of the cardiovascular health outcomes. As there is an
indication of a positive relation between average monthly temperature and ONI in the winter,
this could potentially be investigated further and then be used to predict when the incidence
of cardiovascular health outcomes will increase. If the predictions are accurate, preventative
measures can be applied. Future studies might want to investigate more closely how cold
temperatures are correlated with ONI. Also it could be of interest to investigate the relation
between minimum temperature or UTCI in relation to health outcomes in the sense that high
minimum temperatures could have an adverse effect on individuals that need to cool down
during night time. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Svensson, Emanuel LU
supervisor
organization
course
MAMM10 20221
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
El Niño, ENSO, relative risk, heat waves, cold spells, UTCI, cardiovascular diseases, exposure, Taiwan.
language
English
id
9101417
date added to LUP
2022-10-11 09:41:49
date last changed
2022-10-11 09:41:49
@misc{9101417,
  abstract     = {{As a result of climate change, temperatures have been steadily increasing in the last half
century and extreme weather events such as storms, extreme heat, extreme precipitation
and cold spells have been observed to occur more frequently. This comes with potential
consequences for lives and health. There are several factors affecting the climate in a region.
A phenomenon that has a large impact in the pacific region is the El niño southern oscillation
(ENSO) which dictates variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. In this
study an ENSO index called ONI was used to represent ENSO and the relationship between
high temperature and ONI was investigated. Additionally, five different health outcomes were
analyzed to see how they were affected by different levels of the Universal Thermal Climate
Index (UTCI) which is a climate index that is based on several atmospheric variables. This
thesis is part of the Belmont collaborative AWARD-APR project and the health data was
collected through contacts within the project. The data used is daily mortality count for the
ICD10 codes X30, X32, I50.0, I50.1 and I50.9 for the period 2008 to 2019. The UTCI data
was acquired through an open source database from Copernicus, European Union’s Earth
Observation Programme. The data was processed into daily average and maximum UTCI for
the period 2008 to 2019. To see if there was a relation between extreme heat and ONI in
Taiwan, linear regression models were applied. To investigate the relation between the health
outcomes and UTCI, a Poisson regression model was used to describe the incidence. The results
indicate that there is a positive relation between 95th percentile average daily temperature
during June, July and August in the southern and mid-western parts of Taiwan. Further
there is a rather weak indication of a positive relation between average monthly temperature
and ONI in the winter and spring months. The results of the health analysis indicate that
there is an increased risk of mortality due to these health outcomes during cold conditions.
The main reason for the health outcomes being sensitive to low UTCI intervals(<5 ◦C) is
that the cardiovascular health outcomes that were included exhibit this trend. The two health
outcomes strictly related to heat seem to exhibit the opposite relation although their incidence
is rather low to begin with, making the model uncertain. The results show that there is a
possibility to use ONI to predict when there will be extreme heat in some regions. Thereby,
ONI could indirectly be used to predict when the incidence for certain health outcomes is
more prone to increase. For two regions there seemed to be an increase for all health outcomes
with increasing UTCI. Thereby the relation between extreme heat and ONI might be useful
for predicting and preventing mortality in these regions. For the majority of the regions,
cold conditions implicate an increase of the cardiovascular health outcomes. As there is an
indication of a positive relation between average monthly temperature and ONI in the winter,
this could potentially be investigated further and then be used to predict when the incidence
of cardiovascular health outcomes will increase. If the predictions are accurate, preventative
measures can be applied. Future studies might want to investigate more closely how cold
temperatures are correlated with ONI. Also it could be of interest to investigate the relation
between minimum temperature or UTCI in relation to health outcomes in the sense that high
minimum temperatures could have an adverse effect on individuals that need to cool down
during night time.}},
  author       = {{Svensson, Emanuel}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The relation between extreme heat and ENSO and characterization of health risks in relation to varying levels of UTCI}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}