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Is Support Always Helpful? A quantitative analysis of the effects of external support on intrastate conflict duration

Van Ketwich Verschuur, Mathilde LU (2024) FKVK02 20241
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between various types of external support and the duration of intrastate conflicts. Between 1975 and 2017, the majority of conflicts received external support in one shape or form and the effects of internationalising conflicts through the provision of external support are multiple. Existing literature has found that external involvement generally prolongs the conflicts but still few studies examine the durational effects of different types of external support separately. Thus, in this study, the relationship is explored through a quantitative analysis carried out through the Cox Proportional Hazards Model using newly made available data on the provision of external support. Furthermore, the study is... (More)
This study examines the relationship between various types of external support and the duration of intrastate conflicts. Between 1975 and 2017, the majority of conflicts received external support in one shape or form and the effects of internationalising conflicts through the provision of external support are multiple. Existing literature has found that external involvement generally prolongs the conflicts but still few studies examine the durational effects of different types of external support separately. Thus, in this study, the relationship is explored through a quantitative analysis carried out through the Cox Proportional Hazards Model using newly made available data on the provision of external support. Furthermore, the study is informed by the theory that external support introduces veto players and their agendas that complicate resolution as well as the theoretical arguments that not all types of support exhibit the same effects. The findings of the study indicate that the provision of weapons, access to territory and funding are significantly associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict termination. The results of this quantitative study further highlight how the effects of external support should be studied disaggregately to come closer to the true consequences of providing external support to parties in conflict. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Van Ketwich Verschuur, Mathilde LU
supervisor
organization
course
FKVK02 20241
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
external support, conflict duration, veto player theory, cox proportional hazards model, statistical analysis
language
English
additional info
A special thanks to Barbara Magalhães Teixeira for supervising and teaching me the quantitative method!
id
9153959
date added to LUP
2024-07-18 14:06:36
date last changed
2024-07-18 14:06:36
@misc{9153959,
  abstract     = {{This study examines the relationship between various types of external support and the duration of intrastate conflicts. Between 1975 and 2017, the majority of conflicts received external support in one shape or form and the effects of internationalising conflicts through the provision of external support are multiple. Existing literature has found that external involvement generally prolongs the conflicts but still few studies examine the durational effects of different types of external support separately. Thus, in this study, the relationship is explored through a quantitative analysis carried out through the Cox Proportional Hazards Model using newly made available data on the provision of external support. Furthermore, the study is informed by the theory that external support introduces veto players and their agendas that complicate resolution as well as the theoretical arguments that not all types of support exhibit the same effects. The findings of the study indicate that the provision of weapons, access to territory and funding are significantly associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict termination. The results of this quantitative study further highlight how the effects of external support should be studied disaggregately to come closer to the true consequences of providing external support to parties in conflict.}},
  author       = {{Van Ketwich Verschuur, Mathilde}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Is Support Always Helpful? A quantitative analysis of the effects of external support on intrastate conflict duration}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}