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Analys av svensk tolkning av rysk avsikt under 2000-talet fram till den storskaliga invasionen av Ukraina 2022

Asada, Niclas LU (2024) UNDK02 20241
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This thesis performs a combined quantitative and qualitative study of the Swedish, failure to correctly read and assess the Russian intent, with focus of the period between 2000 up to the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Can we find traces of warning from intelligence agencies, and have they been correctly picked up by decisionmakers? Are there any discrepancies between, and within, the agencies and government in assessing the situations? Parts of Keren Yarhi-Milo’s theoretical model and framework for assessing reasons for decision-making presented in her book “Knowing the adversary” will be used to structure the analysis. References to theoretical models put forward by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow in their book... (More)
This thesis performs a combined quantitative and qualitative study of the Swedish, failure to correctly read and assess the Russian intent, with focus of the period between 2000 up to the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Can we find traces of warning from intelligence agencies, and have they been correctly picked up by decisionmakers? Are there any discrepancies between, and within, the agencies and government in assessing the situations? Parts of Keren Yarhi-Milo’s theoretical model and framework for assessing reasons for decision-making presented in her book “Knowing the adversary” will be used to structure the analysis. References to theoretical models put forward by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow in their book “Essence of Decision” will support in framing the actors. The study is based on annual public reports from Swedish intelligence- and security agencies as well government artifacts. As a summary it can be concluded that warnings did exist and government entities such as the ministry of foreign affairs and the department of defence seem to have made different assessments based on material provided from the agencies. (Less)
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author
Asada, Niclas LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
En studie av förekomst av varningar från myndigheter till regering samt tolkningar av dessa från början av 2000-talet till och med 2022
course
UNDK02 20241
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Ryssland, Russia, Intelligence failure, Underrättelsemisslyckande, Political failure, Politiska misslyckanden, Underrättelsetjänst, Utrikespolitik, Försvarspolitik
language
Swedish
id
9172046
date added to LUP
2024-09-05 14:46:08
date last changed
2024-09-05 14:46:08
@misc{9172046,
  abstract     = {{This thesis performs a combined quantitative and qualitative study of the Swedish, failure to correctly read and assess the Russian intent, with focus of the period between 2000 up to the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Can we find traces of warning from intelligence agencies, and have they been correctly picked up by decisionmakers? Are there any discrepancies between, and within, the agencies and government in assessing the situations? Parts of Keren Yarhi-Milo’s theoretical model and framework for assessing reasons for decision-making presented in her book “Knowing the adversary” will be used to structure the analysis. References to theoretical models put forward by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow in their book “Essence of Decision” will support in framing the actors. The study is based on annual public reports from Swedish intelligence- and security agencies as well government artifacts. As a summary it can be concluded that warnings did exist and government entities such as the ministry of foreign affairs and the department of defence seem to have made different assessments based on material provided from the agencies.}},
  author       = {{Asada, Niclas}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Analys av svensk tolkning av rysk avsikt under 2000-talet fram till den storskaliga invasionen av Ukraina 2022}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}