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Western Taiga vascular plants in a changing climate: mapping range shifts and evaluating conservation management in Sweden

Ball, Maya Anima LU (2025) In Master Thesis Series in Environmental Studies and Sustainability Science MESM02 20251
LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies)
Abstract
Climate change threatens plant persistence due to geographic shifts in climatic conditions. Across Sweden’s Western Taiga, these changes pose risks to vascular plant species and threaten the effectiveness of protected area management. This thesis investigated how climate change affects the distribution of 12 vascular plant species using species distribution models, and reviewed to what extent Swedish national parks employ adaptive and resilient conservation management strategies. Species distribution models project substantial range loss, averaging 62% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 69% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, alongside northward shifts in suitable climate. Analysis of Swedish national park management documents revealed limited... (More)
Climate change threatens plant persistence due to geographic shifts in climatic conditions. Across Sweden’s Western Taiga, these changes pose risks to vascular plant species and threaten the effectiveness of protected area management. This thesis investigated how climate change affects the distribution of 12 vascular plant species using species distribution models, and reviewed to what extent Swedish national parks employ adaptive and resilient conservation management strategies. Species distribution models project substantial range loss, averaging 62% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 69% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, alongside northward shifts in suitable climate. Analysis of Swedish national park management documents revealed limited integration of adaptive and resilient conservation management strategies. These findings suggest that current protected area management in Sweden is insufficient to protect vascular plant species facing rapid anthropogenic climate change. To conserve plant species, Swedish protected areas must adopt more flexible and adaptive management approaches grounded in resilience theory. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Ball, Maya Anima LU
supervisor
organization
course
MESM02 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Sustainability science, adaptive management, climate change, species distribution models, vascular plants
publication/series
Master Thesis Series in Environmental Studies and Sustainability Science
report number
2025:006
language
English
id
9191605
date added to LUP
2025-06-03 10:14:49
date last changed
2025-06-03 10:14:49
@misc{9191605,
  abstract     = {{Climate change threatens plant persistence due to geographic shifts in climatic conditions. Across Sweden’s Western Taiga, these changes pose risks to vascular plant species and threaten the effectiveness of protected area management. This thesis investigated how climate change affects the distribution of 12 vascular plant species using species distribution models, and reviewed to what extent Swedish national parks employ adaptive and resilient conservation management strategies. Species distribution models project substantial range loss, averaging 62% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 69% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, alongside northward shifts in suitable climate. Analysis of Swedish national park management documents revealed limited integration of adaptive and resilient conservation management strategies. These findings suggest that current protected area management in Sweden is insufficient to protect vascular plant species facing rapid anthropogenic climate change. To conserve plant species, Swedish protected areas must adopt more flexible and adaptive management approaches grounded in resilience theory.}},
  author       = {{Ball, Maya Anima}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Master Thesis Series in Environmental Studies and Sustainability Science}},
  title        = {{Western Taiga vascular plants in a changing climate: mapping range shifts and evaluating conservation management in Sweden}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}