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A(nother) QuantitativeThoughtExperiment Towards 2030 and 2050

Lauth, Mathilde LU (2025) EKHS22 20251
Department of Economic History
Abstract
This is a quantitative thought experiment, exploring how the relationship between income, consumption, and emissions must adapt to meet the climate targets for 2030 and 2050. Replicating the dataset from my first-year thesis, I conduct a bivariate analysis of gross national income (GNI) per capita and carbon footprint per capita across 129 countries, using a fixed-effects regression and a random effects model with a Mundlak correction. Results show that the GNI level aligned with the 2030 target is 2,645 international dollars, and that countries already exceeding the 2030 target threshold require GNI reductions of 24–76%. Even if the 2030 goal is achieved, further annual reductions of 0.15 t CO2e per capita are needed to reach net-zero by... (More)
This is a quantitative thought experiment, exploring how the relationship between income, consumption, and emissions must adapt to meet the climate targets for 2030 and 2050. Replicating the dataset from my first-year thesis, I conduct a bivariate analysis of gross national income (GNI) per capita and carbon footprint per capita across 129 countries, using a fixed-effects regression and a random effects model with a Mundlak correction. Results show that the GNI level aligned with the 2030 target is 2,645 international dollars, and that countries already exceeding the 2030 target threshold require GNI reductions of 24–76%. Even if the 2030 goal is achieved, further annual reductions of 0.15 t CO2e per capita are needed to reach net-zero by 2050. The findings highlight the need to consume less, not just differently, and to support technological transformations. This thesis offers a lens, not a solution, for rethinking economic development within planetary boundaries. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Lauth, Mathilde LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS22 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Thought Experiment, Climate Targets, GNI, Carbon footprint, Degrowth, Green Growth, Planetary Boundaries, net zero.
language
English
id
9196100
date added to LUP
2025-06-16 11:43:29
date last changed
2025-06-16 11:43:29
@misc{9196100,
  abstract     = {{This is a quantitative thought experiment, exploring how the relationship between income, consumption, and emissions must adapt to meet the climate targets for 2030 and 2050. Replicating the dataset from my first-year thesis, I conduct a bivariate analysis of gross national income (GNI) per capita and carbon footprint per capita across 129 countries, using a fixed-effects regression and a random effects model with a Mundlak correction. Results show that the GNI level aligned with the 2030 target is 2,645 international dollars, and that countries already exceeding the 2030 target threshold require GNI reductions of 24–76%. Even if the 2030 goal is achieved, further annual reductions of 0.15 t CO2e per capita are needed to reach net-zero by 2050. The findings highlight the need to consume less, not just differently, and to support technological transformations. This thesis offers a lens, not a solution, for rethinking economic development within planetary boundaries.}},
  author       = {{Lauth, Mathilde}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{A(nother) QuantitativeThoughtExperiment Towards 2030 and 2050}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}