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Simulated large-scale solar farms in the Sahara Desert weaken the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

Ottervad, Henry LU (2025) In Student thesis series INES NGEK01 20251
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
The installation of large-scale solar farms is expected to increase in the future as part of a widespread transition from fossil fuel-based energy generation to renewables. By simulating large-scale solar farms in Earth system models (ESMs), previous studies have found that solar farms, at a large enough scale, can globally affect Earth’s climate. This study builds upon previous studies where an ESM was used to simulate the global climate with four different levels of solar farm coverage in the Sahara Desert. Here I focus on the impacts of these hypothetical solar farms on two substantial climate oscillations: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulation data was used to quantify the... (More)
The installation of large-scale solar farms is expected to increase in the future as part of a widespread transition from fossil fuel-based energy generation to renewables. By simulating large-scale solar farms in Earth system models (ESMs), previous studies have found that solar farms, at a large enough scale, can globally affect Earth’s climate. This study builds upon previous studies where an ESM was used to simulate the global climate with four different levels of solar farm coverage in the Sahara Desert. Here I focus on the impacts of these hypothetical solar farms on two substantial climate oscillations: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulation data was used to quantify the oscillations by computing indices which were then analyzed to determine changes in strength and frequency. ENSO displayed a moderately linear decrease in overall strength as the solar farm coverage increased. The decrease was statistically significant at 20% and 50% solar farm coverage. A similar and more linear decrease could convincingly be seen in NAO, but it was only statistically significant at 50% solar farm coverage for one of two tested NAO indices. Spectrum analysis showed some frequency shifts in ENSO and NAO; however, they did not appear to follow a clear pattern with the solar farm coverage. Overall, simulated large-scale solar farms in the Sahara Desert did affect ENSO and NAO, with the effects being more evident in ENSO. For both oscillations, the changes generally appeared to be proportional to the solar farm coverage. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Ottervad, Henry LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK01 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Earth system model, El Niño, ENSO, NAO, Simulation, Sahara, Sahara Desert, Solar farms
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
702
language
English
id
9200610
date added to LUP
2025-06-16 16:49:04
date last changed
2025-06-16 16:49:04
@misc{9200610,
  abstract     = {{The installation of large-scale solar farms is expected to increase in the future as part of a widespread transition from fossil fuel-based energy generation to renewables. By simulating large-scale solar farms in Earth system models (ESMs), previous studies have found that solar farms, at a large enough scale, can globally affect Earth’s climate. This study builds upon previous studies where an ESM was used to simulate the global climate with four different levels of solar farm coverage in the Sahara Desert. Here I focus on the impacts of these hypothetical solar farms on two substantial climate oscillations: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulation data was used to quantify the oscillations by computing indices which were then analyzed to determine changes in strength and frequency. ENSO displayed a moderately linear decrease in overall strength as the solar farm coverage increased. The decrease was statistically significant at 20% and 50% solar farm coverage. A similar and more linear decrease could convincingly be seen in NAO, but it was only statistically significant at 50% solar farm coverage for one of two tested NAO indices. Spectrum analysis showed some frequency shifts in ENSO and NAO; however, they did not appear to follow a clear pattern with the solar farm coverage. Overall, simulated large-scale solar farms in the Sahara Desert did affect ENSO and NAO, with the effects being more evident in ENSO. For both oscillations, the changes generally appeared to be proportional to the solar farm coverage.}},
  author       = {{Ottervad, Henry}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Student thesis series INES}},
  title        = {{Simulated large-scale solar farms in the Sahara Desert weaken the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}