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Trade in Times of Transition: An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the USMCA and COVID-19 on Canadian-U.S. and Intra-Canadian Trade

Oswald, Lotta Viktoria LU (2025) EKHS22 20251
Department of Economic History
Abstract (Swedish)
This thesis investigates the effects of the implementation of the USMCA and the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian trade patterns at both the international level with the United States and the domestic level between provinces. Using a panel gravity model and bilateral trade data from 2016 to 2023, the study analyses how each of these developments influenced intra-Canadian and cross border trade flows. The empirical findings confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly negative impact on bilateral trade between Canada and the United States, especially in resource dependent provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan. In contrast, the immediate effect of the USMCA on trade between Canada and the U.S. proved to be statistically... (More)
This thesis investigates the effects of the implementation of the USMCA and the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian trade patterns at both the international level with the United States and the domestic level between provinces. Using a panel gravity model and bilateral trade data from 2016 to 2023, the study analyses how each of these developments influenced intra-Canadian and cross border trade flows. The empirical findings confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly negative impact on bilateral trade between Canada and the United States, especially in resource dependent provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan. In contrast, the immediate effect of the USMCA on trade between Canada and the U.S. proved to be statistically insignificant, which can be attributed to the structural continuity from its predecessor NAFTA. However, the agreement appears to have indirectly supported internal trade within Canada, particularly in provinces with more diversified economic structures. (Less)
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author
Oswald, Lotta Viktoria LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS22 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
USMCA, COVID-19, pandemic, trade, Canada, United States, gravity model, bilateral trade flows, provincial trade patterns
language
English
id
9203753
date added to LUP
2025-08-18 10:30:26
date last changed
2025-08-18 10:30:26
@misc{9203753,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the effects of the implementation of the USMCA and the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian trade patterns at both the international level with the United States and the domestic level between provinces. Using a panel gravity model and bilateral trade data from 2016 to 2023, the study analyses how each of these developments influenced intra-Canadian and cross border trade flows. The empirical findings confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly negative impact on bilateral trade between Canada and the United States, especially in resource dependent provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan. In contrast, the immediate effect of the USMCA on trade between Canada and the U.S. proved to be statistically insignificant, which can be attributed to the structural continuity from its predecessor NAFTA. However, the agreement appears to have indirectly supported internal trade within Canada, particularly in provinces with more diversified economic structures.}},
  author       = {{Oswald, Lotta Viktoria}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Trade in Times of Transition: An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the USMCA and COVID-19 on Canadian-U.S. and Intra-Canadian Trade}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}