Navigating Deep Uncertainty in Carbon Capture Technologies - An Investigation of CCS and CCU Investments at a Swedish Waste-to-Energy Plant using Robust Decision Making

Abstract

With Sweden and the EU aiming to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2045 and 2050, the interest in carbon capture technology such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) is on the rise, not least in hard-to-abate sectors such as waste incineration. Several Swedish waste management actors are now considering CCS or CCU, among them Tekniska Verken i Linköping AB (TvAB), who are the owners of the waste-to-energy plant Gärstadverken. However, there are many financial uncertainties related to CCS and CCU investments, such as uncertainty in transport and storage costs, potential revenue from CCU products and CCS carbon credits, electricity price development, and more. As a result, evaluating the profitability of CCS and CCU projects is challenging.
To provide TvAB with additional decision support, this study adopts Robust Decision Making (RDM) to examine what conditions could favour or disfavour a carbon capture investment at Gärstadverken. The alternatives examined are CCS and CCU with the production of electronic Sustainable Aviation Fuel (eSAF). Through discussions with TvAB representatives and literature research, a model of the investment decisions was created using the open-source Python library Rhodium. This model was evaluated in 120 000 futures, and the results were analysed using Sobol sensitivity analysis, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM).
The simulation results show that for CCS, the most important factor is the price TvAB can receive for their carbon credits, even when emission allowances are expensive and a large fraction of the emitted CO2 is biogenic. Transport and storage costs and carbon capture investment costs are also shown to be important factors.
For CCU, the most crucial factor is the price that TvAB charges for their eSAF. However, CCU could be favourable at lower eSAF prices if the electrolyser costs are reduced and/or if electricity and emission allowance prices are low. However, it should be noted that the limited study scope resulted in many simplifications – notably when modelling the development of eSAF and carbon credit prices. As such, more efforts should be put into investigating the development of the eSAF and carbon credit markets.

Popular Abstract

With the pressing need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, carbon capture holds great promise for waste-to-energy plants. But with carbon capture investments shrouded in uncertainties, the question of whether to invest, what technology to invest in, and when to invest is far from easy to answer. To approach this issue, this study adopts Robust Decision Making, a method aiding decision makers faced with deep uncertainty. The aim is to identify what conditions could cause a carbon capture investment to fail or succeed.
With Sweden and the EU aiming to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2045 and 2050, the interest in carbon capture technology such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) is on the rise, not least in hard-to-abate sectors such as waste incineration. Several Swedish waste management actors are now considering CCS or CCU, among them Tekniska Verken i Linköping AB (TvAB), which is the owner of the waste-to-energy plant Gärstadverken. However, there are many financial uncertainties related to CCS and CCU investments, such as uncertainty in transport and storage costs, potential revenue from CCU products, electricity price development, and more. As a result, evaluating the profitability of CCS and CCU projects is challenging.
To provide TvAB with additional decision support, this study adopts Robust Decision Making (RDM) to examine what conditions could favour or disfavour a carbon capture investment at Gärstadverken. The alternatives examined are CCS and CCU with the production of electronic Sustainable Aviation Fuel (eSAF). Through discussions with TvAB representatives and literature research, a model of the investment decisions was created using the open-source Python library Rhodium. This model was evaluated in 120 000 futures, and the results were analysed using tools common to RDM analysis, including Sobol sensitivity analysis, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM).
The simulation results show that for CCS, the most crucial factor is the revenue that TvAB can receive for storing biogenic CO2, i.e. the revenues from carbon credits. This seems to be the case regardless of the price of emission allowances or the fraction of emitted CO2 being biogenic. Transport and storage costs and carbon capture investment costs are also shown to be important factors. For CCU, on the other hand, the most crucial factor is the price that TvAB charges for their eSAF. However, CCU could be favourable at lower eSAF prices if the electrolyser costs are reduced and/or if electricity and emission allowance prices are low.
All in all, the study highlights the multifaceted nature of carbon capture investments and emphasises the serious risks investors face as a result of insecure eSAF and carbon credit markets. It also reveals challenges arising when comparing investment strategies characterised by deep uncertainty.

• author: Lindberg, Wila
• supervisor: Rixin Yu
• organization: Department of Energy Sciences
• course: MVKM01 20251
• year: 2025
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: CCS, CCU, eSAF, Waste-to-Energy, RDM, DMDU
• report number: ISRN LUTMDN/TMPH-25/5661-SE
• ISSN: 0282-1990
• language: English
• id: 9210853
• date added to LUP: 2025-08-28 09:50:26
• date last changed: 2025-08-28 09:50:26