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Securitas Per Scientiam: GIS-MCDA of Civil Defence Shelter Distribution Efficiency in the Helsinki Capital Region

Honkanen, Markus Kristian LU (2026) In Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science GISM01 20252
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
Finland has a long history of constructing civil defence shelters and considering defence from a comprehensive, whole-of-society approach. Due to that long history, the requirements for civil defence construction have varied throughout the decades although the main purpose of the civil defence shelter system has remained the same: protecting the population from the effects of armed conflicts. The contemporary shelter construction requirements have not been explored from the viewpoint of distribution efficiency, but the issue of expedient shelter distribution has been identified in recent reports.
This study took on the challenge to research and model the distribution and its efficiency despite the national legislation rendering most... (More)
Finland has a long history of constructing civil defence shelters and considering defence from a comprehensive, whole-of-society approach. Due to that long history, the requirements for civil defence construction have varied throughout the decades although the main purpose of the civil defence shelter system has remained the same: protecting the population from the effects of armed conflicts. The contemporary shelter construction requirements have not been explored from the viewpoint of distribution efficiency, but the issue of expedient shelter distribution has been identified in recent reports.
This study took on the challenge to research and model the distribution and its efficiency despite the national legislation rendering most relevant datasets unusable due to secrecy requirements. The study utilised global and local variants of weighted linear combination, a geospatially enhanced multicriteria decision analysis method, to model the spatial need for civil defence shelters as an index based on population prevalence and public risk factors. The model weight estimation was approached with a quantitative process by operationalising the automatic democratic method. The inter-criterion relationships were explored by utilising statistical and geostatistical techniques, mainly applying Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficients and local bivariate Moran’s I statistics.
The study found that according to the modelled criteria and phenomena, the contemporary building floor area driven shelter construction requirement produced a generally efficient distribution of civil defence shelters within the study area. The study results included multiple sources of uncertainty ranging from the utilised model to the data limitations, due to which the study resulted in at most indicative results that included broad generalisations. The study also revealed that within the confines of the geographical study area, the local weighted linear combination did not provide any additional benefits or improved accuracy to the modelled local civil defence shelter need. (Less)
Abstract (Finnish)
Suomella on pitkä historia väestönsuojien rakentamisesta ja puolustukseen suhtautumisesta kokonaisvaltaisesta ja koko yhteiskunnan huomioivasta lähtökohdasta. Pitkästä historiasta johtuen väestönsuojien rakentamisen vaatimukset ovat muuttuneet vuosikymmenten aikana, vaikkakin väestönsuojelujärjestelmän päätavoite on pysynyt samana: väestön suojaaminen aseellisilta vaikutuksilta. Nykyaikaisia väestönsuojien rakentamisen vaatimuksia ei ole tarkasteltu jakautumisen tehokkuuden näkökulmasta, mutta väestönsuojien jakautumisen tarkoituksenmukaisuuden epävarmuus on tunnistettu viimeaikaisissa raporteissa.
Tämä tutkielma ryhtyi tutkimaan ja mallintamaan jakautumista ja sen tehokkuutta siitä huolimatta, että lainsäädännölliset... (More)
Suomella on pitkä historia väestönsuojien rakentamisesta ja puolustukseen suhtautumisesta kokonaisvaltaisesta ja koko yhteiskunnan huomioivasta lähtökohdasta. Pitkästä historiasta johtuen väestönsuojien rakentamisen vaatimukset ovat muuttuneet vuosikymmenten aikana, vaikkakin väestönsuojelujärjestelmän päätavoite on pysynyt samana: väestön suojaaminen aseellisilta vaikutuksilta. Nykyaikaisia väestönsuojien rakentamisen vaatimuksia ei ole tarkasteltu jakautumisen tehokkuuden näkökulmasta, mutta väestönsuojien jakautumisen tarkoituksenmukaisuuden epävarmuus on tunnistettu viimeaikaisissa raporteissa.
Tämä tutkielma ryhtyi tutkimaan ja mallintamaan jakautumista ja sen tehokkuutta siitä huolimatta, että lainsäädännölliset salassapitovaatimukset estivät useiden tärkeiden tietokantojen hyödyntämistä. Tutkielmassa käytettiin globaalia ja lokaalia painotettua lineaarikombinaatiota, yhtä geospatiaalisten monikriteeristen päätöksentekoanalyysien menetelmistä, mallintaakseen spatiaalista väestönsuojien tarvetta indeksinä, joka perustui väestöön ja julkisiin riskitekijöihin. Mallin painoarvojen määrittelyssä käytettiin kvantitatiivista lähestymistapaa, hyödyntäen automaattista demokraattista menetelmää. Kriteerien välisiä suhteita tutkittiin statistisia ja geostatistisia tekniikoita käyttäen, Spearmanin järjestyskorrelaatiokerrointa ja paikallista bivariaattista Moranin I-tilastomittaa eniten hyödyntäen.
Tutkielmassa havaittiin, että mallinnettuihin kriteereihin ja ilmiöihin perustuen nykyaikainen rakennuksen pinta-alaan pohjautuva väestönsuojan rakentamisvelvollisuus tuotti yleisesti tehokkaan jakauman väestönsuojille tutkimusalueella. Tutkielman tulokset sisälsivät useita epävarmuustekijöitä käytetystä mallista datan rajoitteisiin, minkä vuoksi tutkimus tuotti enintään suuntaa antavia tuloksia, jotka sisälsivät laajoja yleistyksiä. Tutkielma paljasti myös, että maantieteellisellä tutkimusalueella lokaali painotettu lineaarikombinaatio ei tuottanut lisähyötyjä tai tarkempia tuloksia väestönsuojien paikallisen tarpeen mallinnukseen. (Less)
Popular Abstract
This study focused on the efficiency of the civil defence shelter system within the Helsinki capital region in Finland, consisting of the cities of Helsinki, Vantaa, Espoo and Kauniainen. The study aimed to find out whether according to the current legislative framework, the civil defence shelters would be constructed in areas where the population and a need for shelters exists. Due to current civil defence shelter data not being public, this study had to rely on a theoretical model of the civil defence shelter system based on public building data.
Geographical information science and decision theory was utilised to achieve the study aims, mainly applying geographical information systems and a decision analysis method that can combine and... (More)
This study focused on the efficiency of the civil defence shelter system within the Helsinki capital region in Finland, consisting of the cities of Helsinki, Vantaa, Espoo and Kauniainen. The study aimed to find out whether according to the current legislative framework, the civil defence shelters would be constructed in areas where the population and a need for shelters exists. Due to current civil defence shelter data not being public, this study had to rely on a theoretical model of the civil defence shelter system based on public building data.
Geographical information science and decision theory was utilised to achieve the study aims, mainly applying geographical information systems and a decision analysis method that can combine and prioritise multiple relevant criteria to create an index of vulnerability. This analysis method was able to construct a civil defence shelter need index within the study area based on several public datasets, indicating where the need for shelters is theoretically greatest. The study also looked at a more locally specified version of the decision analysis method to compare whether it provided more accurate results than the original method.
The results of the study found that according to the requirements set by the current legislative framework, the civil defence shelter system is generally efficiently distributed within the study area. According to the analyses, the theoretical civil defence shelters would be high in number in the areas where the population and the need for shelters are also high. It was also revealed that the local version of the analysis model did not provide any additional benefits to the study.
This study included an additional analysis to identify uncertainty factors, and several sources of uncertainty in the results were identified. With these uncertainties in mind, the study results could be applied in different levels of local decision-making when constructing new civil defence shelters, even though current legislation does not allow the authorities to require risk-based shelter construction. The results could also lead to new insights when it comes to the prioritisation of temporary civil defence shelter construction areas, as the shelter need index created for this study can be combined with the accurate, contemporary civil defence shelter data to allow for further analyses. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Honkanen, Markus Kristian LU
supervisor
organization
course
GISM01 20252
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Geography, GIS, Civil Defence, Civil Defence Shelter, Multicriteria Decision Analysis
publication/series
Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science
report number
205
language
English
id
9222540
date added to LUP
2026-02-11 09:37:43
date last changed
2026-02-11 09:37:43
@misc{9222540,
  abstract     = {{Finland has a long history of constructing civil defence shelters and considering defence from a comprehensive, whole-of-society approach. Due to that long history, the requirements for civil defence construction have varied throughout the decades although the main purpose of the civil defence shelter system has remained the same: protecting the population from the effects of armed conflicts. The contemporary shelter construction requirements have not been explored from the viewpoint of distribution efficiency, but the issue of expedient shelter distribution has been identified in recent reports.
This study took on the challenge to research and model the distribution and its efficiency despite the national legislation rendering most relevant datasets unusable due to secrecy requirements. The study utilised global and local variants of weighted linear combination, a geospatially enhanced multicriteria decision analysis method, to model the spatial need for civil defence shelters as an index based on population prevalence and public risk factors. The model weight estimation was approached with a quantitative process by operationalising the automatic democratic method. The inter-criterion relationships were explored by utilising statistical and geostatistical techniques, mainly applying Spearman’s rank-order correlation coefficients and local bivariate Moran’s I statistics.
The study found that according to the modelled criteria and phenomena, the contemporary building floor area driven shelter construction requirement produced a generally efficient distribution of civil defence shelters within the study area. The study results included multiple sources of uncertainty ranging from the utilised model to the data limitations, due to which the study resulted in at most indicative results that included broad generalisations. The study also revealed that within the confines of the geographical study area, the local weighted linear combination did not provide any additional benefits or improved accuracy to the modelled local civil defence shelter need.}},
  author       = {{Honkanen, Markus Kristian}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science}},
  title        = {{Securitas Per Scientiam: GIS-MCDA of Civil Defence Shelter Distribution Efficiency in the Helsinki Capital Region}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}