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Robbing Peter to pay Paul? A Box Jenkins analysis of the future of the

Murray, Blake (2007)
Department of Economics
Abstract
By isolating and forecasting the trend in two key variables this paper analyses
the future plausibility of the current UK pensions system. Box Jenkins methods
(1970, 1976, 1994) are applied to UK post-war government pensioner
expenditure and population over 65. Conclusions are made with particular
reference to the recent reports of the pensions commission who recommended a
drastic reorganization of pensions in the UK. The demographic forecasts are shown
to be very close to the predictions made by the pensions commission which both
demonstrates the applicability of Box Jenkins methods to pension modelling
problems and provides support for the conclusions reached by the commission,
including a steady increase in retirement age. The generated... (More)
By isolating and forecasting the trend in two key variables this paper analyses
the future plausibility of the current UK pensions system. Box Jenkins methods
(1970, 1976, 1994) are applied to UK post-war government pensioner
expenditure and population over 65. Conclusions are made with particular
reference to the recent reports of the pensions commission who recommended a
drastic reorganization of pensions in the UK. The demographic forecasts are shown
to be very close to the predictions made by the pensions commission which both
demonstrates the applicability of Box Jenkins methods to pension modelling
problems and provides support for the conclusions reached by the commission,
including a steady increase in retirement age. The generated forecasts are
uniformly higher than the population predictions made by the government actuary’s
department which provides further support for a wide range of academic work
demonstrating governmental underestimation of UK population. Analysis of
government pension expenditure provides forecasts that do not contradict with the
modelling carried out by Turner. Therefore the Box Jenkins analysis of two key
variables – pensioner population and government pensioner expenditure – has
corroborated the forecasting work carried out by the pensions commission and
provided support for their wide ranging conclusions. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Murray, Blake
supervisor
organization
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
pension reform, UK pensions system, Box Jenkins methods, Economics, econometrics, economic theory, economic systems, economic policy, Nationalekonomi, ekonometri, ekonomisk teori, ekonomiska system, ekonomisk politik
language
English
id
1338258
date added to LUP
2007-06-20 00:00:00
date last changed
2010-08-03 10:50:32
@misc{1338258,
  abstract     = {{By isolating and forecasting the trend in two key variables this paper analyses
the future plausibility of the current UK pensions system. Box Jenkins methods
(1970, 1976, 1994) are applied to UK post-war government pensioner
expenditure and population over 65. Conclusions are made with particular
reference to the recent reports of the pensions commission who recommended a
drastic reorganization of pensions in the UK. The demographic forecasts are shown
to be very close to the predictions made by the pensions commission which both
demonstrates the applicability of Box Jenkins methods to pension modelling
problems and provides support for the conclusions reached by the commission,
including a steady increase in retirement age. The generated forecasts are
uniformly higher than the population predictions made by the government actuary’s
department which provides further support for a wide range of academic work
demonstrating governmental underestimation of UK population. Analysis of
government pension expenditure provides forecasts that do not contradict with the
modelling carried out by Turner. Therefore the Box Jenkins analysis of two key
variables – pensioner population and government pensioner expenditure – has
corroborated the forecasting work carried out by the pensions commission and
provided support for their wide ranging conclusions.}},
  author       = {{Murray, Blake}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Robbing Peter to pay Paul? A Box Jenkins analysis of the future of the}},
  year         = {{2007}},
}