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Uncertainty Analysis as a Tool to Improve Corporate CO2 Management - A case study of Posten Norge AS’ project to reduce CO2 emissions

Davidsson, Sophie (2012) In LUTVDG/TVBB VBR920 20121
Risk Management and Safety Engineering
Division of Fire Safety Engineering
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
Abstract
In the future an increasing number of industries will have to comply with greenhouse gas reduction directives. Plans and projects that aim to reduce CO2-emissions are associated with multiple sources of uncertainty and the use of point estimates could lead to misjudgements and erroneous decisions. Within other fields of science uncertainty analysis is a commonly used tool to improve decision basis. The aim of this report has been to assess the advantages of performing an uncertainty analysis of a corporate CO2-reduction project.
Well-applied theories and methodologies for uncertainty analysis have been applied to Posten Norge AS plan for reducing CO2-emissions. The results gained by the uncertainty analysis were found to be more... (More)
In the future an increasing number of industries will have to comply with greenhouse gas reduction directives. Plans and projects that aim to reduce CO2-emissions are associated with multiple sources of uncertainty and the use of point estimates could lead to misjudgements and erroneous decisions. Within other fields of science uncertainty analysis is a commonly used tool to improve decision basis. The aim of this report has been to assess the advantages of performing an uncertainty analysis of a corporate CO2-reduction project.
Well-applied theories and methodologies for uncertainty analysis have been applied to Posten Norge AS plan for reducing CO2-emissions. The results gained by the uncertainty analysis were found to be more informative than the results obtained when only ‘best estimates’ were used to calculate the effect of the action plan. Explicit treatment of uncertainty increases transparency, quantification of a confidence interval for the outcome of the plan improves communication and the identification of the most sensitive input variables increases the corporation ’s possibilities to avoid risk scenarios and enables and enables it to steer towards opportunities. (Less)
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author
Davidsson, Sophie
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Osäkerhetsanalys som verktyg för förbättrad CO2 hantering inom företag
course
VBR920 20121
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
utsläpp av växthusgaser, expert bedömningar, hållbar transport, propagering av osäkerhet, osäkerhetsanalys, uncertainty propagation, expert judgement, sustainable transportation, GHG emissions, Uncertainty analysis
publication/series
LUTVDG/TVBB
report number
5378
ISSN
1402-3504
language
English
id
3018408
date added to LUP
2012-08-23 11:09:46
date last changed
2014-03-10 10:40:42
@misc{3018408,
  abstract     = {In the future an increasing number of industries will have to comply with greenhouse gas reduction directives. Plans and projects that aim to reduce CO2-emissions are associated with multiple sources of uncertainty and the use of point estimates could lead to misjudgements and erroneous decisions. Within other fields of science uncertainty analysis is a commonly used tool to improve decision basis. The aim of this report has been to assess the advantages of performing an uncertainty analysis of a corporate CO2-reduction project.
Well-applied theories and methodologies for uncertainty analysis have been applied to Posten Norge AS plan for reducing CO2-emissions. The results gained by the uncertainty analysis were found to be more informative than the results obtained when only ‘best estimates’ were used to calculate the effect of the action plan. Explicit treatment of uncertainty increases transparency, quantification of a confidence interval for the outcome of the plan improves communication and the identification of the most sensitive input variables increases the corporation ’s possibilities to avoid risk scenarios and enables and enables it to steer towards opportunities.},
  author       = {Davidsson, Sophie},
  issn         = {1402-3504},
  keyword      = {utsläpp av växthusgaser,expert bedömningar,hållbar transport,propagering av osäkerhet,osäkerhetsanalys,uncertainty propagation,expert judgement,sustainable transportation,GHG emissions,Uncertainty analysis},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {LUTVDG/TVBB},
  title        = {Uncertainty Analysis as a Tool to Improve Corporate CO2 Management - A case study of Posten Norge AS’ project to reduce CO2 emissions},
  year         = {2012},
}