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Hur tänker din fiende?

Jörgensen, Johannes LU (2015) UNDK01 20151
Department of Political Science
Abstract
It have been posited that one of the greatest challenges for intelligence analysts is to correctly understand the enemy. Is this possible, which are the traps and can the process be improved? In this essay we will try to answer these questions by applying theories from cognitive psychology, namely those of heuristics and cognitive biases. We will review the theories, see where they fit with historical intelligence failures and review current experiments which illuminate how especially the work of intelligence analysts may be impacted by the results. In addition, we will conduct a minor experiment of our own to test for hindsight bias and review methods to avoid the traps of heuristics and cognitive biases.
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author
Jörgensen, Johannes LU
supervisor
organization
course
UNDK01 20151
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Intelligence Analysis, Heuristics, Cognitive bias
language
Swedish
id
5436031
date added to LUP
2015-11-18 14:46:37
date last changed
2015-11-18 14:46:37
@misc{5436031,
  abstract     = {It have been posited that one of the greatest challenges for intelligence analysts is to correctly understand the enemy. Is this possible, which are the traps and can the process be improved? In this essay we will try to answer these questions by applying theories from cognitive psychology, namely those of heuristics and cognitive biases. We will review the theories, see where they fit with historical intelligence failures and review current experiments which illuminate how especially the work of intelligence analysts may be impacted by the results. In addition, we will conduct a minor experiment of our own to test for hindsight bias and review methods to avoid the traps of heuristics and cognitive biases.},
  author       = {Jörgensen, Johannes},
  keyword      = {Intelligence Analysis,Heuristics,Cognitive bias},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Hur tänker din fiende?},
  year         = {2015},
}