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Trade with China and Rising Mortality in the United States

Donnally, Sandra LU (2017) NEKP01 20171
Department of Economics
Abstract
I analyze the effect of a large exogenous trade shock on mortality in the United States between 2002 and 2012. Following the example of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), I construct a variable that captures the difference in exposure to import competition stemming from differences in initial manufacturing employment structures. I avoid endogeneity issues by instrumenting US commuting zones’ exposure to Chinese import penetration with an equivalent measure of import penetration to eight comparable developed countries. My findings complement existing literature: a large trade shock, in the form of increased trade with China, had a significant positive effect on mortality in the United States. I found that a $1000 increase in Chinese import... (More)
I analyze the effect of a large exogenous trade shock on mortality in the United States between 2002 and 2012. Following the example of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), I construct a variable that captures the difference in exposure to import competition stemming from differences in initial manufacturing employment structures. I avoid endogeneity issues by instrumenting US commuting zones’ exposure to Chinese import penetration with an equivalent measure of import penetration to eight comparable developed countries. My findings complement existing literature: a large trade shock, in the form of increased trade with China, had a significant positive effect on mortality in the United States. I found that a $1000 increase in Chinese import penetration is associated with an increase in mortality by 1.076 per 100,000 persons over the long run and by 0.545 per 100,000 persons over the 10-year short-run. The effect is statistically significant for White non-Hispanic Americans and is insignificant for individuals of other races and of Hispanic origin. Contrary to the findings of other papers, the effect is greater for women of all races and also greater for White non-Hispanic women than for White non-Hispanic men. (Less)
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author
Donnally, Sandra LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKP01 20171
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Globalization, Free trade, China, the United States, Mortality
language
English
id
8924419
date added to LUP
2017-09-12 11:51:59
date last changed
2017-09-12 11:51:59
@misc{8924419,
  abstract     = {I analyze the effect of a large exogenous trade shock on mortality in the United States between 2002 and 2012. Following the example of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), I construct a variable that captures the difference in exposure to import competition stemming from differences in initial manufacturing employment structures. I avoid endogeneity issues by instrumenting US commuting zones’ exposure to Chinese import penetration with an equivalent measure of import penetration to eight comparable developed countries. My findings complement existing literature: a large trade shock, in the form of increased trade with China, had a significant positive effect on mortality in the United States. I found that a $1000 increase in Chinese import penetration is associated with an increase in mortality by 1.076 per 100,000 persons over the long run and by 0.545 per 100,000 persons over the 10-year short-run. The effect is statistically significant for White non-Hispanic Americans and is insignificant for individuals of other races and of Hispanic origin. Contrary to the findings of other papers, the effect is greater for women of all races and also greater for White non-Hispanic women than for White non-Hispanic men.},
  author       = {Donnally, Sandra},
  keyword      = {Globalization,Free trade,China,the United States,Mortality},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Trade with China and Rising Mortality in the United States},
  year         = {2017},
}