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Att uppnå beviskravet i mål om flyktingstatus - Frågor om juridisk sannolikhet och matematisk sannolikhet i en juridisk kontext

Hallberg, Axel LU (2017) JURM02 20172
Department of Law
Faculty of Law
Abstract (Swedish)
Detta arbete behandlar frågan om vad det inom migrationsrätten gällande beviskravet sannolikt innebär ur ett sannolikhetsteoretiskt perspektiv vid tillämpning framför allt av utlänningslagen (2005:716) 4 kap. 1 §. Utvald del av denna paragraf tolkas och delas upp i delteman. Utifrån dessa delteman undersöks vad som måste uppnå vilken sannolikhet och hur sannolikheten för olika delteman påverkar sannolikheten för andra delteman. I arbetet blandas rättsdogmatiska resonemang med sannolikhetsteoretiska sådana. Allt i syfte att förstå vad det egentligen är som ska göras sannolikt.

Det framkommer att olika synsätt på vad beviskravet gäller kan få stora konsekvenser för huruvida detta anses uppfyllt eller ej. Att det inte råder klarhet rörande... (More)
Detta arbete behandlar frågan om vad det inom migrationsrätten gällande beviskravet sannolikt innebär ur ett sannolikhetsteoretiskt perspektiv vid tillämpning framför allt av utlänningslagen (2005:716) 4 kap. 1 §. Utvald del av denna paragraf tolkas och delas upp i delteman. Utifrån dessa delteman undersöks vad som måste uppnå vilken sannolikhet och hur sannolikheten för olika delteman påverkar sannolikheten för andra delteman. I arbetet blandas rättsdogmatiska resonemang med sannolikhetsteoretiska sådana. Allt i syfte att förstå vad det egentligen är som ska göras sannolikt.

Det framkommer att olika synsätt på vad beviskravet gäller kan få stora konsekvenser för huruvida detta anses uppfyllt eller ej. Att det inte råder klarhet rörande vad som är gällande rätt blir därmed mycket problematiskt. Detta problem är centralt för arbetet och förslag ges gällande vad beviskravet borde ta sikte på. Förslag ges även gällande ramen för bevisvärderingen som helhet, i den aktuella typen av ärenden. Med ramen avses här ursprungssannolikheten för bevistemat, beviskravet och bevislättnadsregeln, det vill säga startpunkten och slutpunkten för bevisvärderingen. Förslag ges givetvis inte utan föregående utredning och således omfattar den utredande delen av arbetet även en genomgång av olika synsätt på ursprungssannolikhet och bevislättnadsregeln.

I arbetet förs sannolikhetsteoretiska resonemang som innefattar en del matematik. De slutsatser som slutligen dras är också i hög grad påverkade av dessa resonemang. Det påstås dock inte att rättsläget skulle anpassas efter sannolikhetsteorin. De mer konkreta slutsatserna kan sammanfattas med att det inte finns något juridiskt gällande svar på vad ursprungssannolikheten är eller hur denna tas fram, att beviskravet inte nödvändigtvis innebär att huvudtemat ska göras sannolikt, men att så kanske vore önskvärt, samt att bevislättnadsregeln inte innebär en sänkning av beviskravet. Dessa slutsatser kan mycket väl äga en bredare giltighet än för just UtlL 4 kap. 1 §, men det är i denna kontext som resonemangen förs. (Less)
Abstract
This is a thesis on the issue of what the evidentiary requirement within the field of migration law, probable, implies, from a probabilistic point of view, especially when applying the 1st article of the 4th chapter in the Swedish Aliens Act (2005:716), about refugee status. A selected part of this article is interpreted and divided into sub-themes of proof (these could also be referred to as propositions or probanda). Based on this, the author examines what theme or which themes must be probable and to what degree of likelihood. In this thesis reasoning about de lege lata is combined with probabilistic arguments. The intent of this is to gain a better understanding of what probable means in this context.

In the thesis, the author... (More)
This is a thesis on the issue of what the evidentiary requirement within the field of migration law, probable, implies, from a probabilistic point of view, especially when applying the 1st article of the 4th chapter in the Swedish Aliens Act (2005:716), about refugee status. A selected part of this article is interpreted and divided into sub-themes of proof (these could also be referred to as propositions or probanda). Based on this, the author examines what theme or which themes must be probable and to what degree of likelihood. In this thesis reasoning about de lege lata is combined with probabilistic arguments. The intent of this is to gain a better understanding of what probable means in this context.

In the thesis, the author shows how different views on what theme or which themes must be probable can influence whether or not the evidentiary requirement is met. Because of this, the fact that it is not clear what theme or which themes must be probable is very problematic. This problem lies at the heart of this thesis and a proposition regarding this issue is given. Moreover, propositions regarding the overall framework of the evidentiary assessment in the relevant type of cases are given as well. In this context, the framework refers to the starting point, being the base rate for refugee status, and the endpoint, being the evidentiary requirement and the principle of the benefit of the doubt, of the evidentiary assessment. These propositions are of course proceeded by analysis. Hence, the thesis also includes presentations of different views on the base rate and the principle of the benefit of the doubt.

Probability theory involves math and so does this thesis. The conclusions drawn are also heavily influenced by this. However, it is not stated that the law is adapted to the probability theory. The thesis ends up in a number of conclusions. It is stated that there is no answer to what the base rate is or how it should be determined in a legal context. Moreover, it is concluded that the evidentiary requirement does not necessarily mean that the ultimate theme or probandum (being the whole article) must be probable, but also that this might be a better option. Finally, it is stated that the principle of the benefit of the doubt does not imply a lowering of the evidentiary requirement from probable to something else. All these conclusions might be equally valid for another legal context, but in this thesis, they are limited to the relevant article. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Hallberg, Axel LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Meeting the Evidentiary Requirement in Cases Regarding Refugee Status Issues Concerning Legal Probability and Mathematical Probability in a Legal Context
course
JURM02 20172
year
type
H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
subject
keywords
allmän rättslära, förvaltningsrätt, bevistema, sannolikhet, beviskrav, evidentiary requirement, kumulation, flyktingstatus, refugee status, ursprungssannolikhet, tvivelsmålets fördel, benefit of the doubt, migrationsrätt, asyl, bevis, processrätt
language
Swedish
id
8930847
date added to LUP
2018-01-25 08:27:02
date last changed
2018-01-25 08:27:02
@misc{8930847,
  abstract     = {This is a thesis on the issue of what the evidentiary requirement within the field of migration law, probable, implies, from a probabilistic point of view, especially when applying the 1st article of the 4th chapter in the Swedish Aliens Act (2005:716), about refugee status. A selected part of this article is interpreted and divided into sub-themes of proof (these could also be referred to as propositions or probanda). Based on this, the author examines what theme or which themes must be probable and to what degree of likelihood. In this thesis reasoning about de lege lata is combined with probabilistic arguments. The intent of this is to gain a better understanding of what probable means in this context. 

In the thesis, the author shows how different views on what theme or which themes must be probable can influence whether or not the evidentiary requirement is met. Because of this, the fact that it is not clear what theme or which themes must be probable is very problematic. This problem lies at the heart of this thesis and a proposition regarding this issue is given. Moreover, propositions regarding the overall framework of the evidentiary assessment in the relevant type of cases are given as well. In this context, the framework refers to the starting point, being the base rate for refugee status, and the endpoint, being the evidentiary requirement and the principle of the benefit of the doubt, of the evidentiary assessment. These propositions are of course proceeded by analysis. Hence, the thesis also includes presentations of different views on the base rate and the principle of the benefit of the doubt.

Probability theory involves math and so does this thesis. The conclusions drawn are also heavily influenced by this. However, it is not stated that the law is adapted to the probability theory. The thesis ends up in a number of conclusions. It is stated that there is no answer to what the base rate is or how it should be determined in a legal context. Moreover, it is concluded that the evidentiary requirement does not necessarily mean that the ultimate theme or probandum (being the whole article) must be probable, but also that this might be a better option. Finally, it is stated that the principle of the benefit of the doubt does not imply a lowering of the evidentiary requirement from probable to something else. All these conclusions might be equally valid for another legal context, but in this thesis, they are limited to the relevant article.},
  author       = {Hallberg, Axel},
  keyword      = {allmän rättslära,förvaltningsrätt,bevistema,sannolikhet,beviskrav,evidentiary requirement,kumulation,flyktingstatus,refugee status,ursprungssannolikhet,tvivelsmålets fördel,benefit of the doubt,migrationsrätt,asyl,bevis,processrätt},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Att uppnå beviskravet i mål om flyktingstatus - Frågor om juridisk sannolikhet och matematisk sannolikhet i en juridisk kontext},
  year         = {2017},
}