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Spatial-temporal GIS analysis in public health – a case study of polio disease

Spataru, Roman LU (2018) In Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science GISM01 20182
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
The purpose of this work was to use spatial-temporal analysis for the prevention and mitigation of disease spread. A prototype application was specifically designed to detect territories with a high incidence of cases and a second was used to validate the results.

The first algorithm tried to find clustered cases territories and compare them to the smooth average of the previous two years of data from the same places and their neighbors’. If more cases were detected based on a threshold, then it could be suspected that something unusual was happening. The application would detect such territories and provide alerts to health specialists. The second analysis for validation was using space time cubes method from Arc GIS Pro. It relied on... (More)
The purpose of this work was to use spatial-temporal analysis for the prevention and mitigation of disease spread. A prototype application was specifically designed to detect territories with a high incidence of cases and a second was used to validate the results.

The first algorithm tried to find clustered cases territories and compare them to the smooth average of the previous two years of data from the same places and their neighbors’. If more cases were detected based on a threshold, then it could be suspected that something unusual was happening. The application would detect such territories and provide alerts to health specialists. The second analysis for validation was using space time cubes method from Arc GIS Pro. It relied on Mann-Kendall and Getis-Ord statistics to detect hot spots territories.

The developed analyses have been applied in two cases studies: on the subnational level in Nigeria and in 53 countries belonging to the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (WHO Europe). For this reason, the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance data collected by the World Health Organization was used corresponding to two indicators: the total number of AFP reported cases and the total numbers of unvaccinated children.

The resulting reports have highlighted the underperforming regions in the North-East Nigeria and have spotted two previous outbreaks that occurred in WHO Europe: a large-scale polio outbreak in 2010 started in Tajikistan and a polio outbreak in Israel in 2013.

Also, this paper propose a solution on how the developed algorithm could be incorporated into an outbreak prevention system. This would help detecting any future outbreaks. (Less)
Popular Abstract
The purpose of this work was to use spatial-temporal analysis for the prevention and mitigation of disease spread. A prototype application was specifically designed to detect territories with a high incidence of cases and a second was used to validate the results.

The first algorithm tried to find clustered cases territories and compare them to previous two years of data from the same places and their neighbors’. If more cases were detected based on a threshold, then it could be suspected that something unusual was happening. The application would detect such territories and provide alerts to health specialists. The second analysis for validation was using space time cubes method from Arc GIS Pro software.

The developed analyses... (More)
The purpose of this work was to use spatial-temporal analysis for the prevention and mitigation of disease spread. A prototype application was specifically designed to detect territories with a high incidence of cases and a second was used to validate the results.

The first algorithm tried to find clustered cases territories and compare them to previous two years of data from the same places and their neighbors’. If more cases were detected based on a threshold, then it could be suspected that something unusual was happening. The application would detect such territories and provide alerts to health specialists. The second analysis for validation was using space time cubes method from Arc GIS Pro software.

The developed analyses have been applied in two cases studies: on the subnational level in Nigeria and in 53 countries belonging to the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (WHO Europe). For this reason, the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance data collected by the World Health Organization was used corresponding to two indicators: the total number of AFP reported cases and the total numbers of unvaccinated children.

The resulting reports have highlighted the underperforming regions in the North-East Nigeria and have spotted two previous outbreaks that occurred in WHO Europe: a large-scale polio outbreak in 2010 started in Tajikistan and a polio outbreak in Israel in 2013.

Also, this paper propose a solution on how the developed algorithm could be incorporated into an outbreak prevention system. This would help detecting any future outbreaks. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Spataru, Roman LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Space time GIS analysis of polio disease incidence
course
GISM01 20182
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Geography, GIS, Polio, disease outbreak, WHO, spatial, temporal, public health, distribution, prevention
publication/series
Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science
report number
94
language
English
id
8963858
date added to LUP
2018-12-05 11:51:12
date last changed
2018-12-05 11:51:12
@misc{8963858,
  abstract     = {The purpose of this work was to use spatial-temporal analysis for the prevention and mitigation of disease spread. A prototype application was specifically designed to detect territories with a high incidence of cases and a second was used to validate the results.

The first algorithm tried to find clustered cases territories and compare them to the smooth average of the previous two years of data from the same places and their neighbors’. If more cases were detected based on a threshold, then it could be suspected that something unusual was happening. The application would detect such territories and provide alerts to health specialists. The second analysis for validation was using space time cubes method from Arc GIS Pro. It relied on Mann-Kendall and Getis-Ord statistics to detect hot spots territories.

The developed analyses have been applied in two cases studies: on the subnational level in Nigeria and in 53 countries belonging to the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (WHO Europe). For this reason, the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance data collected by the World Health Organization was used corresponding to two indicators: the total number of AFP reported cases and the total numbers of unvaccinated children.

The resulting reports have highlighted the underperforming regions in the North-East Nigeria and have spotted two previous outbreaks that occurred in WHO Europe: a large-scale polio outbreak in 2010 started in Tajikistan and a polio outbreak in Israel in 2013.

Also, this paper propose a solution on how the developed algorithm could be incorporated into an outbreak prevention system. This would help detecting any future outbreaks.},
  author       = {Spataru, Roman},
  keyword      = {Geography,GIS,Polio,disease outbreak,WHO,spatial,temporal,public health,distribution,prevention},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science},
  title        = {Spatial-temporal GIS analysis in public health – a case study of polio disease},
  year         = {2018},
}