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Riskanalys och tunnlar – hur bör händelser med låg sannolikhet och hög konsekvens hanteras?

Wernberg, Olivia LU and Eklöf, Hanna (2019) VRSM01 20191
Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.)
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
Abstract
Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding... (More)
Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding improvement for how HILP-events can be managed in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The recommendations are as follows; HILP-events need to be taken into consideration in risk analysis for traffic tunnels; A holistic approach, resilience and complexity are all aspects which should be integrated in an early stage when dealing with HILP-events; When identifying HILP-events the process should start in an early stage of the project, if possible the process should be iterative; If the risk of HILP-events is to be quantified the uncertainties connected to this should be presented. Presenting an absolute risk should be avoided; Uncertainties in the background knowledge which is used when quantifying the risk needs to be presented. A long-term solution is to create a database for tunnel related “near misses” and accidents. (Less)
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author
Wernberg, Olivia LU and Eklöf, Hanna
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Risk analysis and tunnels – how should high impact and low probability events be managed?
course
VRSM01 20191
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
high impact, low probability, risk analysis, tunnel safety, major accident
language
Swedish
id
8988448
date added to LUP
2019-08-20 10:24:46
date last changed
2020-12-03 14:26:14
@misc{8988448,
  abstract     = {{Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding improvement for how HILP-events can be managed in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The recommendations are as follows; HILP-events need to be taken into consideration in risk analysis for traffic tunnels; A holistic approach, resilience and complexity are all aspects which should be integrated in an early stage when dealing with HILP-events; When identifying HILP-events the process should start in an early stage of the project, if possible the process should be iterative; If the risk of HILP-events is to be quantified the uncertainties connected to this should be presented. Presenting an absolute risk should be avoided; Uncertainties in the background knowledge which is used when quantifying the risk needs to be presented. A long-term solution is to create a database for tunnel related “near misses” and accidents.}},
  author       = {{Wernberg, Olivia and Eklöf, Hanna}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Riskanalys och tunnlar – hur bör händelser med låg sannolikhet och hög konsekvens hanteras?}},
  year         = {{2019}},
}