Riskanalys och tunnlar – hur bör händelser med låg sannolikhet och hög konsekvens hanteras?
(2019) VRSM01 20191Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.)
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
- Abstract
- Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding... (More)
- Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding improvement for how HILP-events can be managed in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The recommendations are as follows; HILP-events need to be taken into consideration in risk analysis for traffic tunnels; A holistic approach, resilience and complexity are all aspects which should be integrated in an early stage when dealing with HILP-events; When identifying HILP-events the process should start in an early stage of the project, if possible the process should be iterative; If the risk of HILP-events is to be quantified the uncertainties connected to this should be presented. Presenting an absolute risk should be avoided; Uncertainties in the background knowledge which is used when quantifying the risk needs to be presented. A long-term solution is to create a database for tunnel related “near misses” and accidents. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8988448
- author
- Wernberg, Olivia LU and Eklöf, Hanna
- supervisor
- organization
- alternative title
- Risk analysis and tunnels – how should high impact and low probability events be managed?
- course
- VRSM01 20191
- year
- 2019
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- high impact, low probability, risk analysis, tunnel safety, major accident
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 8988448
- date added to LUP
- 2019-08-20 10:24:46
- date last changed
- 2020-12-03 14:26:14
@misc{8988448, abstract = {{Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding improvement for how HILP-events can be managed in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The recommendations are as follows; HILP-events need to be taken into consideration in risk analysis for traffic tunnels; A holistic approach, resilience and complexity are all aspects which should be integrated in an early stage when dealing with HILP-events; When identifying HILP-events the process should start in an early stage of the project, if possible the process should be iterative; If the risk of HILP-events is to be quantified the uncertainties connected to this should be presented. Presenting an absolute risk should be avoided; Uncertainties in the background knowledge which is used when quantifying the risk needs to be presented. A long-term solution is to create a database for tunnel related “near misses” and accidents.}}, author = {{Wernberg, Olivia and Eklöf, Hanna}}, language = {{swe}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{Riskanalys och tunnlar – hur bör händelser med låg sannolikhet och hög konsekvens hanteras?}}, year = {{2019}}, }