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Global growth and stagnation of nuclear power - A case of diffusion of a new energy technology in a heterogenous system

Jacobsson, Johan LU (2021) In IIIEE Master Thesis IMEM01 20211
The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics
Abstract
Reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement requires acceleration of low-carbon energy transitions. At the same time, it is not fully understood why some technologies spread more rapidly and widely than others. This thesis advances our understanding of the diffusion of large-scale low-carbon technologies by bridging technology diffusion studies and political economy of transitions. Through combining modelling of the S-curve of technology diffusion with statistical analysis, the thesis explores how socio-economic characteristics in a heterogenous world, influence the growth and saturation phases of the technology life cycle, as well as the speed and ceiling of diffusion. This study estimates maximum growth rates for nuclear power to a... (More)
Reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement requires acceleration of low-carbon energy transitions. At the same time, it is not fully understood why some technologies spread more rapidly and widely than others. This thesis advances our understanding of the diffusion of large-scale low-carbon technologies by bridging technology diffusion studies and political economy of transitions. Through combining modelling of the S-curve of technology diffusion with statistical analysis, the thesis explores how socio-economic characteristics in a heterogenous world, influence the growth and saturation phases of the technology life cycle, as well as the speed and ceiling of diffusion. This study estimates maximum growth rates for nuclear power to a median of 2.6% of national electricity supplies, which is substantially higher than the same metric for wind and solar power. This indicates that nuclear power can replace carbon-intensive energy technologies faster than granular renewables. Moreover, this study demonstrates that western countries tend to reach higher growth rates and higher saturation levels than other countries. However, the results also show that diffusion of nuclear power has stagnated globally, and increasing growth rates are found outside of OECD, most notably in China and India. The results also indicate that diffusion can be successful independent of GDP per capita, electricity demand growth, and the time of adoption. Further research should advance the analysis by employing more sophisticated statistical methods as well as further explore how diffusion of nuclear power diverges in different parts of the world. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Jacobsson, Johan LU
supervisor
organization
course
IMEM01 20211
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
technology diffusion, energy transitions, growth modelling, nuclear power, low-carbon technologies
publication/series
IIIEE Master Thesis
report number
2021.09
ISSN
1401-9191
language
English
id
9054082
date added to LUP
2021-06-14 13:48:06
date last changed
2021-06-14 13:48:06
@misc{9054082,
  abstract     = {{Reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement requires acceleration of low-carbon energy transitions. At the same time, it is not fully understood why some technologies spread more rapidly and widely than others. This thesis advances our understanding of the diffusion of large-scale low-carbon technologies by bridging technology diffusion studies and political economy of transitions. Through combining modelling of the S-curve of technology diffusion with statistical analysis, the thesis explores how socio-economic characteristics in a heterogenous world, influence the growth and saturation phases of the technology life cycle, as well as the speed and ceiling of diffusion. This study estimates maximum growth rates for nuclear power to a median of 2.6% of national electricity supplies, which is substantially higher than the same metric for wind and solar power. This indicates that nuclear power can replace carbon-intensive energy technologies faster than granular renewables. Moreover, this study demonstrates that western countries tend to reach higher growth rates and higher saturation levels than other countries. However, the results also show that diffusion of nuclear power has stagnated globally, and increasing growth rates are found outside of OECD, most notably in China and India. The results also indicate that diffusion can be successful independent of GDP per capita, electricity demand growth, and the time of adoption. Further research should advance the analysis by employing more sophisticated statistical methods as well as further explore how diffusion of nuclear power diverges in different parts of the world.}},
  author       = {{Jacobsson, Johan}},
  issn         = {{1401-9191}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{IIIEE Master Thesis}},
  title        = {{Global growth and stagnation of nuclear power - A case of diffusion of a new energy technology in a heterogenous system}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}