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Philippine strategic behavior from 2011 to 2021 in light of developments in the South China Sea

Irimia, Raluca-Maria (2022) COSM40 20221
Centre for East and South-East Asian Studies, Lund University
Abstract
In the past decades, China's rise has set off a shift from the unipolar era, rendering the South China Sea (SCS) a theatre for revived great power rivalry. In this environment, the behavior of secondary states navigating the heavy seas of the SCS dispute has drawn significant academic attention to the study of small and middle-power strategy. This thesis focused on the strategic response employed by the Philippines in response to developments in the SCS from 2011 to 2021. Qualitative content analysis was used to examine official communications and published documents and determine the nature of the state behavior employed by two consecutive presidential administrations, using the theoretical framework of hedging as a risk management... (More)
In the past decades, China's rise has set off a shift from the unipolar era, rendering the South China Sea (SCS) a theatre for revived great power rivalry. In this environment, the behavior of secondary states navigating the heavy seas of the SCS dispute has drawn significant academic attention to the study of small and middle-power strategy. This thesis focused on the strategic response employed by the Philippines in response to developments in the SCS from 2011 to 2021. Qualitative content analysis was used to examine official communications and published documents and determine the nature of the state behavior employed by two consecutive presidential administrations, using the theoretical framework of hedging as a risk management strategy. The analysis revealed a shift from a traditional balancing type of response employed by the Aquino III administration, to an approach illustrative of hedging during the Duterte administration, where hedging is understood as a downplaying of events in the SCS, measures of military and defense capabilities enhancement that are not specifically directed at China, and ambiguous alignment signals, all part of an effort to mitigate the risks that the Philippines would face, should a potential escalation of the dispute materialize. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Irimia, Raluca-Maria
supervisor
organization
course
COSM40 20221
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Philippine foreign policy, South China Sea dispute, Hedging theory, Risk management, Philippine-China relations, Philippine-US relations
language
English
id
9094976
date added to LUP
2022-07-01 08:57:43
date last changed
2022-07-01 08:57:43
@misc{9094976,
  abstract     = {{In the past decades, China's rise has set off a shift from the unipolar era, rendering the South China Sea (SCS) a theatre for revived great power rivalry. In this environment, the behavior of secondary states navigating the heavy seas of the SCS dispute has drawn significant academic attention to the study of small and middle-power strategy. This thesis focused on the strategic response employed by the Philippines in response to developments in the SCS from 2011 to 2021. Qualitative content analysis was used to examine official communications and published documents and determine the nature of the state behavior employed by two consecutive presidential administrations, using the theoretical framework of hedging as a risk management strategy. The analysis revealed a shift from a traditional balancing type of response employed by the Aquino III administration, to an approach illustrative of hedging during the Duterte administration, where hedging is understood as a downplaying of events in the SCS, measures of military and defense capabilities enhancement that are not specifically directed at China, and ambiguous alignment signals, all part of an effort to mitigate the risks that the Philippines would face, should a potential escalation of the dispute materialize.}},
  author       = {{Irimia, Raluca-Maria}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Philippine strategic behavior from 2011 to 2021 in light of developments in the South China Sea}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}