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Utmanare av den rådande ordningen - En statistisk studie av Sverigedemokraternas påverkan på kommunala minoritetsstyren i Sverige

Ädelrot, Carl LU (2023) STVK02 20222
Department of Political Science
Abstract
During the last 20 years, the number of minority governments in Swedish municipalities have increased dramatically. Simultaneously, the Swedish Democrats have gained an increasing share of municipal voter support. With the help of Down’s theory of political isolation of right-wing populist parties, the aim of this thesis is to statistically analyse the correlation between the rise in municipal voter support for Sweden Democrats and the probability of municipal minority government formation between 1998-2018. Two alternative explanations – the decreased combined vote share of the Social Democrats and the Moderates, as well as the national election results of Sweden Democrats – have also been analysed in order to determine whether these... (More)
During the last 20 years, the number of minority governments in Swedish municipalities have increased dramatically. Simultaneously, the Swedish Democrats have gained an increasing share of municipal voter support. With the help of Down’s theory of political isolation of right-wing populist parties, the aim of this thesis is to statistically analyse the correlation between the rise in municipal voter support for Sweden Democrats and the probability of municipal minority government formation between 1998-2018. Two alternative explanations – the decreased combined vote share of the Social Democrats and the Moderates, as well as the national election results of Sweden Democrats – have also been analysed in order to determine whether these factors have a stronger impact on the probability of minority governments forming. I found that the increased municipal support for Sweden Democrats has had the biggest impact on the increased share of municipal minority governments, especially after the 2014 municipal election. The rise in national support for SD has also most likely had a significant underlying effect on the increased number of minority governments, since an improved national election result for the party correlates strongly with increased municipal support in the upcoming election. (Less)
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author
Ädelrot, Carl LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVK02 20222
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Sweden Democrats, minority government, local coalition formation, pariah parties, mainstream-niche party strategies
language
Swedish
id
9105578
date added to LUP
2023-02-22 13:45:35
date last changed
2023-02-22 13:45:35
@misc{9105578,
  abstract     = {{During the last 20 years, the number of minority governments in Swedish municipalities have increased dramatically. Simultaneously, the Swedish Democrats have gained an increasing share of municipal voter support. With the help of Down’s theory of political isolation of right-wing populist parties, the aim of this thesis is to statistically analyse the correlation between the rise in municipal voter support for Sweden Democrats and the probability of municipal minority government formation between 1998-2018. Two alternative explanations – the decreased combined vote share of the Social Democrats and the Moderates, as well as the national election results of Sweden Democrats – have also been analysed in order to determine whether these factors have a stronger impact on the probability of minority governments forming. I found that the increased municipal support for Sweden Democrats has had the biggest impact on the increased share of municipal minority governments, especially after the 2014 municipal election. The rise in national support for SD has also most likely had a significant underlying effect on the increased number of minority governments, since an improved national election result for the party correlates strongly with increased municipal support in the upcoming election.}},
  author       = {{Ädelrot, Carl}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Utmanare av den rådande ordningen - En statistisk studie av Sverigedemokraternas påverkan på kommunala minoritetsstyren i Sverige}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}