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Exploring the Future in a What-if Mode - A Philosophical and Critical Investigation into the Use of Scenarios in Climate Science

Korbanski, Franciszek Wieslaw LU (2023) HEKM51 20231
Human Geography
Department of Human Geography
Human Ecology
Abstract
The figure of scenarios is frequently used in present-day climate science and plays a prominent role in the architecture of the IPCC Reports. In this work, I undertake a philosophical and critical investigation into the ontological, epistemological and temporal modalities of the figure of scenario. I do so by engaging with the term’s supra-scientific origins, with the history of its semantic alterations as well as with its present-day applications across a variety of discourses — both scientific and non-scientific. I propose to analyse scenarios as examples of imagining and as such I embed my critique in what I label ‘critical imaginary studies’, coalescing around the critique of capitalist realism formulated by philosopher and cultural... (More)
The figure of scenarios is frequently used in present-day climate science and plays a prominent role in the architecture of the IPCC Reports. In this work, I undertake a philosophical and critical investigation into the ontological, epistemological and temporal modalities of the figure of scenario. I do so by engaging with the term’s supra-scientific origins, with the history of its semantic alterations as well as with its present-day applications across a variety of discourses — both scientific and non-scientific. I propose to analyse scenarios as examples of imagining and as such I embed my critique in what I label ‘critical imaginary studies’, coalescing around the critique of capitalist realism formulated by philosopher and cultural critic Mark Fisher. I develop his concept of hauntology into a hermeneutic method to analyse one of scenarios central — thought frequently overlooked — characteristic, namely the agency of the virtual that inheres in it. I complement my philosophical reading of scenarios — which I perform consulting selected fragments of the latest Synthesis Report (IPCC: 2023) — with a historico-critical counterpart of my investigation, problematising its political dimension resulting from the particular present-day context of environmental and climate collapse. Ultimately, I argue for an alternative understanding of scenarios and futurity in climate science, one mindful of their inherent performativity. (Less)
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author
Korbanski, Franciszek Wieslaw LU
supervisor
organization
course
HEKM51 20231
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
scenario, future, the IPCC, Synthesis Report, Mark Fisher, hauntology
language
English
id
9114387
date added to LUP
2023-07-26 10:41:33
date last changed
2023-07-26 10:41:33
@misc{9114387,
  abstract     = {{The figure of scenarios is frequently used in present-day climate science and plays a prominent role in the architecture of the IPCC Reports. In this work, I undertake a philosophical and critical investigation into the ontological, epistemological and temporal modalities of the figure of scenario. I do so by engaging with the term’s supra-scientific origins, with the history of its semantic alterations as well as with its present-day applications across a variety of discourses — both scientific and non-scientific. I propose to analyse scenarios as examples of imagining and as such I embed my critique in what I label ‘critical imaginary studies’, coalescing around the critique of capitalist realism formulated by philosopher and cultural critic Mark Fisher. I develop his concept of hauntology into a hermeneutic method to analyse one of scenarios central — thought frequently overlooked — characteristic, namely the agency of the virtual that inheres in it. I complement my philosophical reading of scenarios — which I perform consulting selected fragments of the latest Synthesis Report (IPCC: 2023) — with a historico-critical counterpart of my investigation, problematising its political dimension resulting from the particular present-day context of environmental and climate collapse. Ultimately, I argue for an alternative understanding of scenarios and futurity in climate science, one mindful of their inherent performativity.}},
  author       = {{Korbanski, Franciszek Wieslaw}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Exploring the Future in a What-if Mode - A Philosophical and Critical Investigation into the Use of Scenarios in Climate Science}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}