Geographic polarization and clustering of partisan voting: A local-level analysis of Stockholm Municipality
(2023) In Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science GISM01 20232Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- Abstract
- In the last decade, the topic of political polarization has become a growing concern within academic and public debate. Many highlight the linkage between increased political polarization and democratic problems such as political tribalism and uncivil activism. It is also argued to be a global phenomenon. Despite this, research on political polarization - and its outcome in space (i.e. geographic polarization) - has predominately been conducted in the United States where an increased tendency for the partisan vote to spatially cluster at the local-most level of neighborhoods has been observed .However, this also means that no studies have been conducted in political systems that is not characterized by the binary two-party-system.
This... (More) - In the last decade, the topic of political polarization has become a growing concern within academic and public debate. Many highlight the linkage between increased political polarization and democratic problems such as political tribalism and uncivil activism. It is also argued to be a global phenomenon. Despite this, research on political polarization - and its outcome in space (i.e. geographic polarization) - has predominately been conducted in the United States where an increased tendency for the partisan vote to spatially cluster at the local-most level of neighborhoods has been observed .However, this also means that no studies have been conducted in political systems that is not characterized by the binary two-party-system.
This study investigates the prevalence of geographic polarization within the Municipality of Stockholm, Sweden between 1998 and 2018. As the topic of geographic polarization has been largely neglected in Sweden, the aim of this study is to gain insight on the prevalence, magnitude and longitudinal development of polarization in the Swedish multi-party system context.
The methodological approach of this study is to measure the degree of geographical polarization, at electoral districts, utilizing Global and Local Moran’s I, a common spatial regression statistic within geographic information systems (GIS) which has been used in several studies to examine the degree in which the partisan vote tends to cluster. This is done at [1] the Global level, i.e. the overall tendency for the partisan vote to cluster, and [2] the Local level, the tendency for the partisan vote to cluster at different magnitudes across neighborhoods within the municipality.
As results show, within the Municipality of Stockholm there was a decreasing trend of clustering of the partisan vote between the elections of 1998 and 2010. Between 2010 and 2018 there was an increasing trend of the partisan vote to cluster. This is a much more ambiguous result compared to similar studies in the United States, where similar studies show a much clearer linear trend. At the local level, the magnitude in which the partisan vote tend to cluster at different parts of the city is clear. The right-wing vote is mostly clustered at the central part of the city, mainly around the neighborhoods of Norrmalm and Östermalm. The left-wing vote is mostly clustered in the Sub-urbs of Rinkeby-Kista and Spånga-Tensta. This pattern is repeated for all elections.
In conclusion, between 1998 and 2018, the Municipality of Stockholm showed a varying degree of geographic polarization, but no unambiguous evidence of an increase. The municipality was just as geographically polarized as 2018 as of 1998. At the local level, the tendency for the partisan vote to cluster at different parts of the municipality is repeated at each election, indicating a stable electoral geography . Hence, claims of an increased geographic polarization within the municipality cannot be supported. (Less) - Popular Abstract (Swedish)
- I den offentliga debatten talas det ofta om att vi lever i en politiskt polariserad tid. Många hävdar att det är ett globalt fenomen, och ofta framhävs de senaste decenniets amerikanska presidentval samt den brittiska folkomröstningen om Brexit som tragiska exempel. Båda händelserna kännetecknades av ett minskat förtroende för media, politiska institutioner och mellan väljare av motsatta politiska positioner. En utveckling som om den försätter i sig ett demokratiskt problem.
I både USA och Sverige studeras politisk polarisering ofta genom analys av medier, beslutsfattande organ och politiker. Däremot, till skillnad från i Sverige så existerar det USA ett relativt stort forskningsfält angående Geografisk Polarisering, dvs tendensen för... (More) - I den offentliga debatten talas det ofta om att vi lever i en politiskt polariserad tid. Många hävdar att det är ett globalt fenomen, och ofta framhävs de senaste decenniets amerikanska presidentval samt den brittiska folkomröstningen om Brexit som tragiska exempel. Båda händelserna kännetecknades av ett minskat förtroende för media, politiska institutioner och mellan väljare av motsatta politiska positioner. En utveckling som om den försätter i sig ett demokratiskt problem.
I både USA och Sverige studeras politisk polarisering ofta genom analys av medier, beslutsfattande organ och politiker. Däremot, till skillnad från i Sverige så existerar det USA ett relativt stort forskningsfält angående Geografisk Polarisering, dvs tendensen för politiska partiröster att samlas i geografiskt homogena enklaver. I USA är de geografiska mönstren välbekanta, på delstatsnivå dominerar republikanerna inlandet medan demokraterna kontrollerar kuststaterna. på County-nivå kontrollerar republikanerna landsbygden medan demokraterna kontrollerar städerna. Intressant - och oroväckande nog - har denna polarisering även påvisats på stadsdelsnivå inom städer, dvs att i en stadsdel röstar en överväldigande majoritet på republikanerna, medens det i en annan stadsdel röstas överväldigande på demokraterna. Den politiska segregationen återfinns på samtliga skalor, ända ner till grannskap, och mycket tyder på att den ökat över tid.
I ljuset av de forskningsresultat som genererats i USA undersöker denna studie förekomsten av geografisk polarisering inom Stockholms kommun mellan åren 1998 och 2018. Eftersom forskning kring geografisk polarisering är icke-existerande i Sverige, är syftet med denna studie att få insikt om förekomsten, graden av och tidsmässig utveckling av geografisk polarisering i en svensk kontext.
Studien analyserar varje valresultat mellan 1998 och 2018, inom Stockholms kommun på valdistrikts-nivå. Genom ett geostatistiskt mått (Morans I) så avgörs det till vilken grad partiröster på vänster- och högerpartier tenderar att samlas i geografiska kluster. Det här görs på både på övergripande nivå (den övergripande tendensen för vänster- och högerröster att klustreras i hela kommunen) samt på lokal nivå (tendensen för vänster- och högerröster att klustreras i kommunens olika stadsdelar). Ökar tendensen för partirösten att samlas i kluster mellan två val innebär detta en ökad geografisk polarisering. Minskar denna tendens så innebär det en minskad geografisk polarisering.
Resultatet visar att på övergripande nivå, så minskade graden av geografisk polarisering för varje val mellan 1998 och 2010. För efterkommande val, dvs 2014 och 2018 så ökade graden av geografisk polarisering. I det stora hela är detta ett mer ambivalent resultat jämför med liknande studier i USA, där trenden om ökad geografisk polarisering är mycket mer oavbruten och tydlig. På lokal nivå är skillnaden i geografisk polarisering inom olika stadsdelar däremot mycket tydlig. Högerröster tenderar att samlas i de centrala delarna av kommunen, mestadels i stadsdelarna Norrmalm and Östermalm. Vänsterröster tenderar som att samlas i stadens förorter, framför allt Rinkeby-Kista och Spånga-Tensta. Detta geografiska mönster är tidsmässigt intakt och återupprepar sig för varje val utan större förändringar. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9139885
- author
- Almén, Jonas LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- GISM01 20232
- year
- 2023
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Geography, GIS, Spatial Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation, MAUP, Electoral Geography, Political Polarization, Geographic Polarization, Stockholm Municipality
- publication/series
- Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science
- report number
- 165
- language
- English
- id
- 9139885
- date added to LUP
- 2023-10-12 09:27:59
- date last changed
- 2023-10-12 09:27:59
@misc{9139885,
abstract = {{In the last decade, the topic of political polarization has become a growing concern within academic and public debate. Many highlight the linkage between increased political polarization and democratic problems such as political tribalism and uncivil activism. It is also argued to be a global phenomenon. Despite this, research on political polarization - and its outcome in space (i.e. geographic polarization) - has predominately been conducted in the United States where an increased tendency for the partisan vote to spatially cluster at the local-most level of neighborhoods has been observed .However, this also means that no studies have been conducted in political systems that is not characterized by the binary two-party-system.
This study investigates the prevalence of geographic polarization within the Municipality of Stockholm, Sweden between 1998 and 2018. As the topic of geographic polarization has been largely neglected in Sweden, the aim of this study is to gain insight on the prevalence, magnitude and longitudinal development of polarization in the Swedish multi-party system context.
The methodological approach of this study is to measure the degree of geographical polarization, at electoral districts, utilizing Global and Local Moran’s I, a common spatial regression statistic within geographic information systems (GIS) which has been used in several studies to examine the degree in which the partisan vote tends to cluster. This is done at [1] the Global level, i.e. the overall tendency for the partisan vote to cluster, and [2] the Local level, the tendency for the partisan vote to cluster at different magnitudes across neighborhoods within the municipality.
As results show, within the Municipality of Stockholm there was a decreasing trend of clustering of the partisan vote between the elections of 1998 and 2010. Between 2010 and 2018 there was an increasing trend of the partisan vote to cluster. This is a much more ambiguous result compared to similar studies in the United States, where similar studies show a much clearer linear trend. At the local level, the magnitude in which the partisan vote tend to cluster at different parts of the city is clear. The right-wing vote is mostly clustered at the central part of the city, mainly around the neighborhoods of Norrmalm and Östermalm. The left-wing vote is mostly clustered in the Sub-urbs of Rinkeby-Kista and Spånga-Tensta. This pattern is repeated for all elections.
In conclusion, between 1998 and 2018, the Municipality of Stockholm showed a varying degree of geographic polarization, but no unambiguous evidence of an increase. The municipality was just as geographically polarized as 2018 as of 1998. At the local level, the tendency for the partisan vote to cluster at different parts of the municipality is repeated at each election, indicating a stable electoral geography . Hence, claims of an increased geographic polarization within the municipality cannot be supported.}},
author = {{Almén, Jonas}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science}},
title = {{Geographic polarization and clustering of partisan voting: A local-level analysis of Stockholm Municipality}},
year = {{2023}},
}