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A temporal Hawkes process model for shooting occurrences in Sweden

Kopelman, Sara LU (2024) STAH11 20232
Department of Statistics
Abstract
The Hawkes process, also referred to as a self-exciting point process, is a class
of point processes where the intensity is conditioned on previous events. More
specifically, an event occurrence excites the process, temporarily increasing the
probability of more events occurring. One application of Hawkes processes is to
model occurrences of crimes, such as burglaries or shootings. The present thesis
attempts to apply the theory of Hawkes processes to shooting occurrences in
Sweden, by exploring whether a temporal Hawkes process model is suitable to
model shooting occurrences in the Police regions of Stockholm, V¨ast (West) and
Syd (South). The results indicate that although there is reason to believe that
shooting occurrences in... (More)
The Hawkes process, also referred to as a self-exciting point process, is a class
of point processes where the intensity is conditioned on previous events. More
specifically, an event occurrence excites the process, temporarily increasing the
probability of more events occurring. One application of Hawkes processes is to
model occurrences of crimes, such as burglaries or shootings. The present thesis
attempts to apply the theory of Hawkes processes to shooting occurrences in
Sweden, by exploring whether a temporal Hawkes process model is suitable to
model shooting occurrences in the Police regions of Stockholm, V¨ast (West) and
Syd (South). The results indicate that although there is reason to believe that
shooting occurrences in the regions exhibit self-exciting tendencies, a temporal
Hawkes process model with time invariant parameters is not adequate. The
present thesis suggests that the reason for this lie in the parameters not being
constant over time. Furthermore, based on previous research it is likely that a
spatial component is needed to adequately capture the underlying process. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Kopelman, Sara LU
supervisor
organization
course
STAH11 20232
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Point processes, stochastic processes, statistics, conditional intensity, crime, shootings
language
English
id
9145774
date added to LUP
2024-01-22 10:33:27
date last changed
2024-01-22 10:33:27
@misc{9145774,
  abstract     = {{The Hawkes process, also referred to as a self-exciting point process, is a class
of point processes where the intensity is conditioned on previous events. More
specifically, an event occurrence excites the process, temporarily increasing the
probability of more events occurring. One application of Hawkes processes is to
model occurrences of crimes, such as burglaries or shootings. The present thesis
attempts to apply the theory of Hawkes processes to shooting occurrences in
Sweden, by exploring whether a temporal Hawkes process model is suitable to
model shooting occurrences in the Police regions of Stockholm, V¨ast (West) and
Syd (South). The results indicate that although there is reason to believe that
shooting occurrences in the regions exhibit self-exciting tendencies, a temporal
Hawkes process model with time invariant parameters is not adequate. The
present thesis suggests that the reason for this lie in the parameters not being
constant over time. Furthermore, based on previous research it is likely that a
spatial component is needed to adequately capture the underlying process.}},
  author       = {{Kopelman, Sara}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{A temporal Hawkes process model for shooting occurrences in Sweden}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}