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The impact on trade of the Brexit referendum between the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth

Abrahamsson, Fanny LU (2024) NEKN01 20241
Department of Economics
Abstract (Swedish)
The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the Brexit-referendum on export trade between the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth countries. The UK has long historical ties with the Commonwealth countries, in addition to its departure from the EU, it is interesting to investigate the British trade policy after Brexit. By constructing a synthetic United Kingdom from the remaining countries in the European Union, namely the EU-15, a counterfactual outcome is created where the leave vote in the Brexit referendum would not have occurred. This is compared with the actual outcome of the export trade to five large economies within the Commonwealth. The findings suggest that the synthetic control units are larger for most of the... (More)
The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the Brexit-referendum on export trade between the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth countries. The UK has long historical ties with the Commonwealth countries, in addition to its departure from the EU, it is interesting to investigate the British trade policy after Brexit. By constructing a synthetic United Kingdom from the remaining countries in the European Union, namely the EU-15, a counterfactual outcome is created where the leave vote in the Brexit referendum would not have occurred. This is compared with the actual outcome of the export trade to five large economies within the Commonwealth. The findings suggest that the synthetic control units are larger for most of the country-pairs than the treated unit, indicating that the trade would have been higher if the remain vote for Brexit would have won. The results are not robust after running a number of sensitivity tests. The concluding remarks suggest that it is imperative to use other methods and additional data to conclude secure results of future trade policies between the UK and the Commonwealth. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Abrahamsson, Fanny LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20241
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Brexit, The Commonwealth, Synthetic control method, European integration
language
English
id
9166018
date added to LUP
2024-10-01 13:05:00
date last changed
2024-10-01 13:05:00
@misc{9166018,
  abstract     = {{The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the Brexit-referendum on export trade between the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth countries. The UK has long historical ties with the Commonwealth countries, in addition to its departure from the EU, it is interesting to investigate the British trade policy after Brexit. By constructing a synthetic United Kingdom from the remaining countries in the European Union, namely the EU-15, a counterfactual outcome is created where the leave vote in the Brexit referendum would not have occurred. This is compared with the actual outcome of the export trade to five large economies within the Commonwealth. The findings suggest that the synthetic control units are larger for most of the country-pairs than the treated unit, indicating that the trade would have been higher if the remain vote for Brexit would have won. The results are not robust after running a number of sensitivity tests. The concluding remarks suggest that it is imperative to use other methods and additional data to conclude secure results of future trade policies between the UK and the Commonwealth.}},
  author       = {{Abrahamsson, Fanny}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The impact on trade of the Brexit referendum between the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}