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(Un)Usual coalitions? Why Social Democrats and Moderates form coalitions in Swedish municipalities

Wixe, Assar LU (2025) STVM25 20242
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This thesis examines the formation of coalitions between the Social Democrats (S) and the Moderates (M) in Swedish municipalities, traditionally ideological opposites, in the context of changing political landscapes. The study explores the strategic and structural factors influencing coalition formation. Classical coalition theories and hypotheses derived from contagion theory, and the role of populist and local parties are tested against empirical data from municipal assemblies from 1994 elections to 2022. The findings suggest that declining vote shares for the parties, fragmented assemblies, contagion effects and bargaining advantages from few bargaining parties affect the likelihood of grand coalitions forming in Swedish municipalities.
Popular Abstract (Swedish)
Denna uppsats undersöker bildandet av koalitioner mellan Socialdemokraterna (S) och Moderaterna (M) i svenska kommuner, två partier som traditionellt är ideologiska motsatser, i kontexten av förändrade politiska landskap. Studien utforskar de strategiska och strukturella faktorer som påverkar koalitionsbildning. Klassiska koalitionsteorier och hypoteser härledda från smittoteori samt populistiska och lokala partiers roll testas mot empiriska data från kommunfullmäktigeval mellan 1994 och 2022. Resultaten visar att minskande röstandelar för partierna, fragmenterade fullmäktigeförsamlingar, "contaigon effects" och förhandlingsfördelar genom få förhandlingsparter påverkar sannolikheten för att stora koalitioner bildas i svenska kommuner.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Wixe, Assar LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVM25 20242
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Grand Coalitions, Socialdemokraterna, Moderaterna, Swedish Politics, Coalition formation, bargaining proposition, minimal winning theory, minimum winning theory, contagion theory, local politics, Binary Logistic Regression
language
English
id
9179282
date added to LUP
2025-03-04 11:57:02
date last changed
2025-03-04 11:57:02
@misc{9179282,
  abstract     = {{This thesis examines the formation of coalitions between the Social Democrats (S) and the Moderates (M) in Swedish municipalities, traditionally ideological opposites, in the context of changing political landscapes. The study explores the strategic and structural factors influencing coalition formation. Classical coalition theories and hypotheses derived from contagion theory, and the role of populist and local parties are tested against empirical data from municipal assemblies from 1994 elections to 2022. The findings suggest that declining vote shares for the parties, fragmented assemblies, contagion effects and bargaining advantages from few bargaining parties affect the likelihood of grand coalitions forming in Swedish municipalities.}},
  author       = {{Wixe, Assar}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{(Un)Usual coalitions? Why Social Democrats and Moderates form coalitions in Swedish municipalities}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}