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LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

The Trump Trade: Round Three

Loncar Dahlström, Charlie LU and Hilmersson, Gustav LU (2025) BUSN79 20251
Department of Business Administration
Abstract
This thesis aims to examine how equity markets responded to Donald
Trump’s 2024 election victory, focusing on industries targeted by his
proposed policy agenda. It seeks to identify differences in returns and
trading activity, and to provide insight into how political signals influence
investor expectations and behavior. This thesis demonstrates that policy-favored firms realised significantly higher returns following Trump’s 2024 victory. Differences in volume could not be causally attributed to the election due to non-parallel pre-election trends. Overall, while markets efficiently incorporate clear policy signals into prices, volume dynamics reflect additional behavioral and structural influences.
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author
Loncar Dahlström, Charlie LU and Hilmersson, Gustav LU
supervisor
organization
course
BUSN79 20251
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Political uncertainty, Election, US (United States of America), S&P 500, Trump, Returns, Trading volume, Treated (policy-aligned), Control (non-policy-aligned), Difference-in-Differences (DiD), Parallel trends
language
English
id
9206369
date added to LUP
2025-06-30 10:54:16
date last changed
2025-06-30 10:54:16
@misc{9206369,
  abstract     = {{This thesis aims to examine how equity markets responded to Donald
Trump’s 2024 election victory, focusing on industries targeted by his
proposed policy agenda. It seeks to identify differences in returns and
trading activity, and to provide insight into how political signals influence
investor expectations and behavior. This thesis demonstrates that policy-favored firms realised significantly higher returns following Trump’s 2024 victory. Differences in volume could not be causally attributed to the election due to non-parallel pre-election trends. Overall, while markets efficiently incorporate clear policy signals into prices, volume dynamics reflect additional behavioral and structural influences.}},
  author       = {{Loncar Dahlström, Charlie and Hilmersson, Gustav}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Trump Trade: Round Three}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}