Skip to main content

LUP Student Papers

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Quantifying distribution shifts of the main tree species in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula

Reigada-Muñoz, Maria LU (2025) In Student thesis series INES NGEK01 20251
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
Tree species are shifting their distribution patterns to align with their climate niches, or optimal conditions. Species are expected to shift their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes if the current trend of rising temperatures persists. Therefore, we hypothesised that the geographic distributions of most native Iberian tree species in the peninsular Spain would shift northward and to higher elevations, reflecting responses to recent warming and drying trends. Using data from two censuses of the Spanish Forest Inventory (SFI), we analysed changes in the centroids of 14 native tree species by comparing adult trees (SFI-2, 1986–1996) and recruited trees (SFI-4, 2008–present) in recently unmanaged forest plots. Contrary to expectations,... (More)
Tree species are shifting their distribution patterns to align with their climate niches, or optimal conditions. Species are expected to shift their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes if the current trend of rising temperatures persists. Therefore, we hypothesised that the geographic distributions of most native Iberian tree species in the peninsular Spain would shift northward and to higher elevations, reflecting responses to recent warming and drying trends. Using data from two censuses of the Spanish Forest Inventory (SFI), we analysed changes in the centroids of 14 native tree species by comparing adult trees (SFI-2, 1986–1996) and recruited trees (SFI-4, 2008–present) in recently unmanaged forest plots. Contrary to expectations, our results showed that most species shifted along an east–west axis rather than consistent upslope or latitudinal movement. The longest geographical shift was reached by Pinus pinaster with 93.71 kilometres to the west and the shortest shift observed by Juniperus thurifera with 5.56 km to the south. Altitudinally, Quercus robur exhibited the greatest downslope change (–305 m) and Quercus pyrenaica the most upslope change (+288 m). These unexpected patterns were likely influenced by previous land use, legacies of forest management, and microclimatic refugia. Our findings suggest that, in landscapes recovering from past land use changes, these factors may outweigh climatic drivers in shaping recruitment patterns. This highlights the importance of integrating landscape history, species functional characteristics, and microenvironmental factors to improve predictions of tree species distribution shifts under climate change. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Reigada-Muñoz, Maria LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK01 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Trees, species range shifts, climate change, Spanish Forest Inventory, forest dynamics, geographical shift, altitudinal changes
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
707
language
English
id
9225437
date added to LUP
2026-04-16 15:54:20
date last changed
2026-04-16 15:54:20
@misc{9225437,
  abstract     = {{Tree species are shifting their distribution patterns to align with their climate niches, or optimal conditions. Species are expected to shift their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes if the current trend of rising temperatures persists. Therefore, we hypothesised that the geographic distributions of most native Iberian tree species in the peninsular Spain would shift northward and to higher elevations, reflecting responses to recent warming and drying trends. Using data from two censuses of the Spanish Forest Inventory (SFI), we analysed changes in the centroids of 14 native tree species by comparing adult trees (SFI-2, 1986–1996) and recruited trees (SFI-4, 2008–present) in recently unmanaged forest plots. Contrary to expectations, our results showed that most species shifted along an east–west axis rather than consistent upslope or latitudinal movement. The longest geographical shift was reached by Pinus pinaster with 93.71 kilometres to the west and the shortest shift observed by Juniperus thurifera with 5.56 km to the south. Altitudinally, Quercus robur exhibited the greatest downslope change (–305 m) and Quercus pyrenaica the most upslope change (+288 m). These unexpected patterns were likely influenced by previous land use, legacies of forest management, and microclimatic refugia. Our findings suggest that, in landscapes recovering from past land use changes, these factors may outweigh climatic drivers in shaping recruitment patterns. This highlights the importance of integrating landscape history, species functional characteristics, and microenvironmental factors to improve predictions of tree species distribution shifts under climate change.}},
  author       = {{Reigada-Muñoz, Maria}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Student thesis series INES}},
  title        = {{Quantifying distribution shifts of the main tree species in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}