Machines Don’t Watch Netflix - A Delphi Study-based Scenario Analysis of the Network for AI Ecosystem in 2035
(2026) MIOM05 20261Department of Industrial and Mechanical Sciences
Production Management
- Abstract
- Mobile connectivity is set to change in the coming years due to AI generated data from agents and robotics. How this will develop remains uncertain since this type of data generation is not only a question of connectivity but also compute location and use cases. This creates a need for forward looking scenario analysis for ecosystem players so they can position themselves to win in a new paradigm.
The purpose of this research was to analyze how the introduction of artificial intelligence traffic would impact the information and communication technologies industry by 2035. It aimed to provide a prognosis of network traffic, scenarios that might play out and how the ecosystem might change in each scenario. The goal was not to predict a... (More) - Mobile connectivity is set to change in the coming years due to AI generated data from agents and robotics. How this will develop remains uncertain since this type of data generation is not only a question of connectivity but also compute location and use cases. This creates a need for forward looking scenario analysis for ecosystem players so they can position themselves to win in a new paradigm.
The purpose of this research was to analyze how the introduction of artificial intelligence traffic would impact the information and communication technologies industry by 2035. It aimed to provide a prognosis of network traffic, scenarios that might play out and how the ecosystem might change in each scenario. The goal was not to predict a single correct future but to map the space of plausible ones and identify what conditions led to each scenario.
The research employed a two-round Delphi study as its primary method, gathering structured responses from 23 domain experts across academia, technology vendors, regulators, and industry associations. Industry reports were used as secondary data to contextualize and validate the expert findings.
Four scenarios looking toward 2035 were highlighted as possible futures, the Delphi panel was prompted on each scenario's plausibility. This resulted in one scenario with a strong positive consensus of 93 percent, two with 70 percent and one with no consensus splitting the panel at about 50 percent. Additionally, for each scenario: winners, losers, consequences and things that need to happen for the scenario to materialize were identified.
Three bifurcation points were found that have major implications for communication service providers (CSPs) and telecom equipment vendors. First, regulation is critical for CSPs. Market forces alone are not considered enough for them to gain traction. Second, the decoupling of infrastructure from economic value can be detrimental. If computing shifts to the edge but the economic value is still captured by the orchestrators, CSPs end up losing out, even though they are the ones supplying the compute. Third, geopolitical fragmentation makes data sovereignty a priority. This positions CSPs to displace global hyperscalers as primary compute providers. (Less) - Popular Abstract
- AI is changing how mobile networks are used. Networks built primarily to stream video and carry human conversations are now being asked to handle a new kind of traffic sent by AI agents and robots, systems that talk to each other around the clock.
To explore what this means for the telecom ecosystem, the authors surveyed 23 telecom and tech experts. The survey used the Delphi method which is a forecasting technique that sharpens predictions through multiple rounds of questions. The clearest finding: computing is moving toward the network edge, but economic value may not follow. A handful of tech giants could extend their grip outward even as the infrastructure spreads. This leaves network operators with the risk of building the roads... (More) - AI is changing how mobile networks are used. Networks built primarily to stream video and carry human conversations are now being asked to handle a new kind of traffic sent by AI agents and robots, systems that talk to each other around the clock.
To explore what this means for the telecom ecosystem, the authors surveyed 23 telecom and tech experts. The survey used the Delphi method which is a forecasting technique that sharpens predictions through multiple rounds of questions. The clearest finding: computing is moving toward the network edge, but economic value may not follow. A handful of tech giants could extend their grip outward even as the infrastructure spreads. This leaves network operators with the risk of building the roads while others collect the tolls.
Four futures emerge from the analysis, ranging from hyperscaler dominance to a distributed ecosystem. Which one materializes depends less on technology than on regulation, geopolitics and the strategic choices being made right now. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9229887
- author
- Westring, Robert LU and Chamoun, Alex LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- MIOM05 20261
- year
- 2026
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Delphi study, Scenario, Ecosystem, Telecom, Artificial intelligence, Information and communication technology
- other publication id
- 26/5339
- language
- English
- id
- 9229887
- date added to LUP
- 2026-06-03 17:21:53
- date last changed
- 2026-06-03 17:21:53
@misc{9229887,
abstract = {{Mobile connectivity is set to change in the coming years due to AI generated data from agents and robotics. How this will develop remains uncertain since this type of data generation is not only a question of connectivity but also compute location and use cases. This creates a need for forward looking scenario analysis for ecosystem players so they can position themselves to win in a new paradigm.
The purpose of this research was to analyze how the introduction of artificial intelligence traffic would impact the information and communication technologies industry by 2035. It aimed to provide a prognosis of network traffic, scenarios that might play out and how the ecosystem might change in each scenario. The goal was not to predict a single correct future but to map the space of plausible ones and identify what conditions led to each scenario.
The research employed a two-round Delphi study as its primary method, gathering structured responses from 23 domain experts across academia, technology vendors, regulators, and industry associations. Industry reports were used as secondary data to contextualize and validate the expert findings.
Four scenarios looking toward 2035 were highlighted as possible futures, the Delphi panel was prompted on each scenario's plausibility. This resulted in one scenario with a strong positive consensus of 93 percent, two with 70 percent and one with no consensus splitting the panel at about 50 percent. Additionally, for each scenario: winners, losers, consequences and things that need to happen for the scenario to materialize were identified.
Three bifurcation points were found that have major implications for communication service providers (CSPs) and telecom equipment vendors. First, regulation is critical for CSPs. Market forces alone are not considered enough for them to gain traction. Second, the decoupling of infrastructure from economic value can be detrimental. If computing shifts to the edge but the economic value is still captured by the orchestrators, CSPs end up losing out, even though they are the ones supplying the compute. Third, geopolitical fragmentation makes data sovereignty a priority. This positions CSPs to displace global hyperscalers as primary compute providers.}},
author = {{Westring, Robert and Chamoun, Alex}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Machines Don’t Watch Netflix - A Delphi Study-based Scenario Analysis of the Network for AI Ecosystem in 2035}},
year = {{2026}},
}