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Political cleavages in Sweden: an in-depth analysis of multi-dimensional conflict and the educational divide

Wennerlund, Jonatan LU (2026) SIMZ51 20261
Master of Science in Social Scientific Data Analysis
Abstract
This thesis investigates the transformation of political cleavages in Sweden, focusing on the
transition from class-based voting to a multi-dimensional party system. Specifically, it
examines whether the 2022 Swedish parliamentary election aligns with global trends where
education and income have diverged as primary predictors of political support. To test the
validity of Thomas Piketty’s “Brahmin Left vs. Merchant Right” theoretical framework, this
study analyses how socioeconomic status, occupational class, and redistributive preferences
structure contemporary voting behaviour in Sweden. This thesis integrates Abou-Chadi and
Hix’s (2021) theory of party-system fragmentation and Daniel Oesch’s (2006) horizontal work
logics,... (More)
This thesis investigates the transformation of political cleavages in Sweden, focusing on the
transition from class-based voting to a multi-dimensional party system. Specifically, it
examines whether the 2022 Swedish parliamentary election aligns with global trends where
education and income have diverged as primary predictors of political support. To test the
validity of Thomas Piketty’s “Brahmin Left vs. Merchant Right” theoretical framework, this
study analyses how socioeconomic status, occupational class, and redistributive preferences
structure contemporary voting behaviour in Sweden. This thesis integrates Abou-Chadi and
Hix’s (2021) theory of party-system fragmentation and Daniel Oesch’s (2006) horizontal work
logics, framing the Swedish landscape through Bartolini and Mair’s (1990) lens of cleavage
accretion. A two-step analytical approach is utilised to 1) replicate Piketty’s methodological
approach, estimating socioeconomic predicted probability gradients to establish long-term
trends, and 2) conduct a party-family analysis which aims to uncover the specific mechanisms
of political realignment and evaluate whether a bloc-level analysis obscures the intra-bloc
pluralism driving the educational divide.

The results provide support of a consolidated education-based cleavage, showing that
educational attainment is a stronger predictor of left-right alignment in Sweden compared to
income. However, the findings indicate that this does not constitute a complete realignment of
the traditional Left but is instead a result of party-system fragmentation, indicating that the
observed divergence is primarily anchored in the inverse educational sorting between the Green
party and the Sweden Democrats where support for the former increases steeply with
educational attainment and vice versa. The rise of a “multi-elite” party system is thus not
evident in the data. The results provide tentative support for the role of horizontal differentiation
in occupational class, revealing that party alignment is rooted in specific work logics. New
sociocultural divides have thus not wholly replaced historical class conflicts; rather, they have
been layered on top of them in a process of accretion, indicating a transition into a tripolar
political space. Additionally, this study demonstrates that highly educated left-wing voters
remain strongly committed to income redistribution and have, in fact, not abandoned the
economic interests of the working class. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Wennerlund, Jonatan LU
supervisor
organization
course
SIMZ51 20261
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Political cleavages, Brahmin Left, education cleavage, Swedish politics, multi-elite party systems, GAL/TAN, realignment, 2022 Swedish Election, party-system fragmentation
language
English
id
9232579
date added to LUP
2026-06-25 11:25:15
date last changed
2026-07-15 01:42:22
@misc{9232579,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the transformation of political cleavages in Sweden, focusing on the
transition from class-based voting to a multi-dimensional party system. Specifically, it
examines whether the 2022 Swedish parliamentary election aligns with global trends where
education and income have diverged as primary predictors of political support. To test the
validity of Thomas Piketty’s “Brahmin Left vs. Merchant Right” theoretical framework, this
study analyses how socioeconomic status, occupational class, and redistributive preferences
structure contemporary voting behaviour in Sweden. This thesis integrates Abou-Chadi and
Hix’s (2021) theory of party-system fragmentation and Daniel Oesch’s (2006) horizontal work
logics, framing the Swedish landscape through Bartolini and Mair’s (1990) lens of cleavage
accretion. A two-step analytical approach is utilised to 1) replicate Piketty’s methodological
approach, estimating socioeconomic predicted probability gradients to establish long-term
trends, and 2) conduct a party-family analysis which aims to uncover the specific mechanisms
of political realignment and evaluate whether a bloc-level analysis obscures the intra-bloc
pluralism driving the educational divide.

The results provide support of a consolidated education-based cleavage, showing that
educational attainment is a stronger predictor of left-right alignment in Sweden compared to
income. However, the findings indicate that this does not constitute a complete realignment of
the traditional Left but is instead a result of party-system fragmentation, indicating that the
observed divergence is primarily anchored in the inverse educational sorting between the Green
party and the Sweden Democrats where support for the former increases steeply with
educational attainment and vice versa. The rise of a “multi-elite” party system is thus not
evident in the data. The results provide tentative support for the role of horizontal differentiation
in occupational class, revealing that party alignment is rooted in specific work logics. New
sociocultural divides have thus not wholly replaced historical class conflicts; rather, they have
been layered on top of them in a process of accretion, indicating a transition into a tripolar
political space. Additionally, this study demonstrates that highly educated left-wing voters
remain strongly committed to income redistribution and have, in fact, not abandoned the
economic interests of the working class.}},
  author       = {{Wennerlund, Jonatan}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Political cleavages in Sweden: an in-depth analysis of multi-dimensional conflict and the educational divide}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}