EU-NATO Policy Coordination on Cascading Climate Risks and Their Implications for European Critical Infrastructure Resilience

Abstract

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the EU and NATO have strengthened resilience, preparedness, and critical infrastructure policies in response to evolving transboundary threats. However, cascading climate risks, defined as cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts intensified by climate change, have the potential to be insufficiently understood and integrated into EU and NATO frameworks. In the rush to prepare for war, cascading climate risks may be underestimated and de-prioritized. Due to their spatial and dynamic complexity, they present novel challenges to critical infrastructure systems, EU-NATO cooperation, and civil-military readiness.

This thesis explores EU-NATO policy coordination on cascading climate risks and the implications for European critical infrastructure resilience. Using a mixed qualitative methodology, the study analyzes EU, NATO, and joint policy documents paired with semi-structured interviews with EU and NATO officials, national stakeholders, and key experts. It aims to ascertain how the EU and NATO address and frame cascading climate risks in existing policy domains and whether this is leading to shared responses, risk ownership, and implementation at the European-level.

The main findings suggest that the EU and NATO possess strong awareness of cascading climate risks, but there is limited integration in preparedness, resilience, and critical infrastructure policies. Hence, shared responses and risk ownership remain ad-hoc through national-level approaches and issue-specific coalitions of the willing. To improve policy coherence, the EU and NATO need to further mainstream cascading climate risks across necessary domains and provide guidance to EU member states, NATO Allies, and the private sector.

Popular Abstract

The EU and NATO are increasingly exposed to cross-border and cross-sectoral climate impacts within Europe. These are called cascading climate risks. While the EU and NATO have a strong awareness of these risks, awareness does not equate to preparedness and readiness. Critical cross-border infrastructure networks are increasingly exposed, with consequences for European security, military mobility, and resilience. The EU and NATO need to coordinate, prepare, and adapt.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the EU and NATO have increasingly worked together to address transboundary threats. To foster comprehensive resilience, the EU and NATO created complementary but distinct frameworks for preparedness, societal resilience, and critical infrastructure. However, in the rush to prepare for war in Europe, climate risks may be underestimated and deprioritized, especially as their impacts cross international borders and disrupt vital societal functions and essential services. To make Europe climate resilient, greater EU and NATO cooperation is needed. This thesis examines how the EU and NATO address cascading climate risks and their implications for European critical infrastructure resilience.

Cascading climate risks are a risk and threat multiplier with strong implications for cross-border critical transport and energy infrastructure. Railways, ports, energy grids, roads, and other infrastructure, such as the Trans-European Transportation Network (TEN-T), are increasingly exposed to these risks. The impacts extend beyond national borders and sectors, with implications for European security, civil-military readiness, military mobility, and operational effectiveness. In conducting this thesis, twenty-nine EU and NATO policy documents were analyzed, and fourteen interviews were conducted through field research in Brussels, Belgium. This study reveals that cascading climate risks are rarely explicitly integrated into EU and NATO resilience planning, preparedness strategies, and critical infrastructure policies. Nor does it translate into policy guidance for EU Member States and NATO Allies. Progress is limited due to a lack of common EU-level policies, uneven risk assessments, differing national priorities, and insufficient policy implementation. As a result, preparedness for cascading climate impacts is uneven across Europe.

Yet, the thesis suggests an enabling environment is emerging. New EU-level policies, such as the EU Integrated Framework on Climate Resilience and Risk Management and the new EU Security strategy, offer a path to integrate cascading climate risks as a cross-cutting policy and security concern. Moreover, NATO is integrating climate risks into its baseline resilience requirements and defense planning for NATO Allies. Here, EU-NATO policy coordination and coherence are essential to addressing cascading climate risks and supporting national governments. However, a surprising find is that responses are emerging organically through national-level approaches and coalitions of the willing. Yet, EU-level coordination is still fragmented.

This research study leads to an important conclusion: Europe understands that climate change is a security threat, but it is not fully prepared for its consequences. Without more coordinated approaches, uneven adaptation efforts could create significant vulnerabilities across Europe. To build long-term resilience, the EU and NATO will need to integrate cascading climate risks across their policies and pursue systemic climate resilience. As European transboundary crises interact, the impetus shifts to how the EU and NATO govern interdependency itself with new actors. This study can be used to improve EU-NATO policy coordination and improve how stakeholders account for cascading climate risks in Europe. Ultimately, complementary EU and NATO frameworks to address systemic climate risks are necessary to prepare for an uncertain future.

• author: Norman, Tristan Chance
• supervisor: Finn Nilson
• organization: Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
• course: VBRM15 20261
• year: 2026
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Social Sciences
• keywords: EU-NATO cooperation, cascading climate risks, critical infrastructure, policy coherence, policy coordination, adaptation, climate security, preparedness.
• language: English
• id: 9236969
• date added to LUP: 2026-06-12 15:01:05
• date last changed: 2026-06-12 15:01:05