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Svenska fastighetsbolag som investeringsobjekt

Malmström, Isac Albin LU and Terzija, Milan (2026) VFTM01 20261
Real Estate Science
Abstract
This thesis examines the 14 largest listed Swedish real estate companies on the Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap segment as investment objects between 2006 and 2026.
It analyzes their risk and return characteristics, identifies shared traits among the strongest performers, and tests whether an optimized portfolio of real estate shares can outperform both the sector index and the broader market on a risk-adjusted basis.
A mixed-method approach is applied. Monthly return data for the companies is
analysed through portfolio optimization based on Modern Portfolio Theory, CAPM and
the Sharpe ratio, divided into four five-year periods. The quantitative results are complemented by interviews with senior representatives from the sector and a review... (More)
This thesis examines the 14 largest listed Swedish real estate companies on the Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap segment as investment objects between 2006 and 2026.
It analyzes their risk and return characteristics, identifies shared traits among the strongest performers, and tests whether an optimized portfolio of real estate shares can outperform both the sector index and the broader market on a risk-adjusted basis.
A mixed-method approach is applied. Monthly return data for the companies is
analysed through portfolio optimization based on Modern Portfolio Theory, CAPM and
the Sharpe ratio, divided into four five-year periods. The quantitative results are complemented by interviews with senior representatives from the sector and a review of annual reports and public communications.
The results show that the sector’s performance depends heavily on the interest rate environment. During the prolonged low-rate period, real estate shares delivered strong excess returns and the optimized portfolios performed well above the market. The picture changed clearly when rates rose, as the sector underperformed the broader market by a considerable margin, risk levels increased, and several companies failed to compensate investors for the risk taken.
Across all periods, the strongest performers share a focused business model, a clear focus on cash flow and a conservative approach to debt. The interviews confirm this pattern and highlight the importance of sector expertise and financial discipline.
Furthermore, a concentrated ownership structure is observed among the stronger-
performing companies, where a founder or a principal shareholder holds operational
responsibility. The study concludes that listed real estate should be seen as a cyclical and interest-rate-sensitive asset class rather than a defensive one. The optimized portfolios beat the indices in hindsight, but since the analysis is based on historical data, the same outcome cannot be expected going forward. (Less)
Popular Abstract (Swedish)
Mellan 2006 och 2026 har den svenska fastighetsmarknaden genomgått dramatiska svängningar. Vi har analyserat de 14 största börsnoterade fastighetsbolagen på Nasdaq Stockholm under hela perioden, och det tydligaste fyndet är hur avgörande ränteläget är. Under lågränteåren 2011 till 2021 slog fastighetsaktier den breda aktiemarknaden med 12 till 14 procentenheter per år. Men när Riksbanken höjde räntorna kraftigt efter 2021 vändes bilden: sektorn underpresterade marknaden
med 8 procentenheter per år. Fastighetsbolag lånar stora summor för att förvärva fastigheter. Låg ränta är billig och lönsam. Hög ränta slår hårt mot räntekostnader, fastighetsvärden och finansieringsmöjligheter.
Trots att hela sektorn drabbades av räntechocken klarade... (More)
Mellan 2006 och 2026 har den svenska fastighetsmarknaden genomgått dramatiska svängningar. Vi har analyserat de 14 största börsnoterade fastighetsbolagen på Nasdaq Stockholm under hela perioden, och det tydligaste fyndet är hur avgörande ränteläget är. Under lågränteåren 2011 till 2021 slog fastighetsaktier den breda aktiemarknaden med 12 till 14 procentenheter per år. Men när Riksbanken höjde räntorna kraftigt efter 2021 vändes bilden: sektorn underpresterade marknaden
med 8 procentenheter per år. Fastighetsbolag lånar stora summor för att förvärva fastigheter. Låg ränta är billig och lönsam. Hög ränta slår hårt mot räntekostnader, fastighetsvärden och finansieringsmöjligheter.
Trots att hela sektorn drabbades av räntechocken klarade sig vissa bolag betydligt bättre. Genom att kombinera portföljoptimering med anonyma intervjuer med ledande företrädare i branschen identifierade vi ett tydligt mönster: starka bolag hade en renodlad affärsidé, konservativ belåning och långa räntebindningstider. En oväntad gemensam nämnare var ägarstrukturen. Bolag med en aktiv grundare eller dominerande ägare presterade genomgående starkare, troligen för att en ägare med eget kapital på spel fattar mer långsiktiga beslut. Samtidigt har detta mönster observerats specifikt för de stora fastighetsbolagen och samma antaganden kan inte göras generellt.
Vi testade även om en matematiskt optimerad portfölj av fastighetsbolag kan slå index. Resultatet var tydligt: portföljerna slog konsekvent både fastighetsindex och börsen på riskjusterad basis. Men det finns ett viktigt förbehåll: optimeringen bygger på historiska data. En verklig investerare kan inte i förväg veta vilka bolag som kommer prestera bäst.
Den viktigaste slutsatsen är att svenska fastighetsaktier inte bör ses som ett defensivt inslag i en portfölj. De är ett räntekänsligt och cykliskt tillgångsslag, och risken förändras dramatiskt beroende på vart räntorna är på väg. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Malmström, Isac Albin LU and Terzija, Milan
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Swedish real estate companies as investment objects
course
VFTM01 20261
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Fastighetsbolag, tillgång, risk, avkastning, portföljoptimering, fastighetsmarknad, CAPM, Sharpekvot, räntekänslighet, Modern portföljvalsteori.
report number
ISRN LUTVDG/TVLM 26/5601SE
other publication id
ISRN LUTVDG/TVLM 26/5601SE
language
Swedish
id
9238330
date added to LUP
2026-06-17 10:49:30
date last changed
2026-06-17 10:49:30
@misc{9238330,
  abstract     = {{This thesis examines the 14 largest listed Swedish real estate companies on the Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap segment as investment objects between 2006 and 2026. 
It analyzes their risk and return characteristics, identifies shared traits among the strongest performers, and tests whether an optimized portfolio of real estate shares can outperform both the sector index and the broader market on a risk-adjusted basis.
A mixed-method approach is applied. Monthly return data for the companies is
analysed through portfolio optimization based on Modern Portfolio Theory, CAPM and
the Sharpe ratio, divided into four five-year periods. The quantitative results are complemented by interviews with senior representatives from the sector and a review of annual reports and public communications.
The results show that the sector’s performance depends heavily on the interest rate environment. During the prolonged low-rate period, real estate shares delivered strong excess returns and the optimized portfolios performed well above the market. The picture changed clearly when rates rose, as the sector underperformed the broader market by a considerable margin, risk levels increased, and several companies failed to compensate investors for the risk taken.
Across all periods, the strongest performers share a focused business model, a clear focus on cash flow and a conservative approach to debt. The interviews confirm this pattern and highlight the importance of sector expertise and financial discipline.
Furthermore, a concentrated ownership structure is observed among the stronger-
performing companies, where a founder or a principal shareholder holds operational
responsibility. The study concludes that listed real estate should be seen as a cyclical and interest-rate-sensitive asset class rather than a defensive one. The optimized portfolios beat the indices in hindsight, but since the analysis is based on historical data, the same outcome cannot be expected going forward.}},
  author       = {{Malmström, Isac Albin and Terzija, Milan}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Svenska fastighetsbolag som investeringsobjekt}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}