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Drawing from the Region: Early Labour-Market Adjustment to Novo Nordisk’s Expansion in Kalundborg

Pentelius, Alexander LU and Hansen, William Rasmus (2026) EOSK12 20261
Department of Economic History
Abstract
This thesis investigates the early labour-market response to the investment waves announced
in 2021 and 2023 by Novo Nordisk, aimed at expanding its production capabilities in
Kalundborg, Denmark. We use municipal-level register data on employment, commuting,
unemployment, economic activity and migration from Danmarks Statistik, comparing
conditions prior to the investment waves with labour-market developments observed
thereafter. We document that workplace employment within Kalundborg rose sharply
(+19.3%), largely met by in-commuters, with in-commuting growing by 44.2% over the
observed period. Local resident employment similarly grew by 5.8%, while registered
unemployment declined by 1.4 percentage points, indicating some degree... (More)
This thesis investigates the early labour-market response to the investment waves announced
in 2021 and 2023 by Novo Nordisk, aimed at expanding its production capabilities in
Kalundborg, Denmark. We use municipal-level register data on employment, commuting,
unemployment, economic activity and migration from Danmarks Statistik, comparing
conditions prior to the investment waves with labour-market developments observed
thereafter. We document that workplace employment within Kalundborg rose sharply
(+19.3%), largely met by in-commuters, with in-commuting growing by 44.2% over the
observed period. Local resident employment similarly grew by 5.8%, while registered
unemployment declined by 1.4 percentage points, indicating some degree of local absorption,
though the magnitude of these changes was considerably smaller than that of commuting. The
working-age population and net migration remained flat or slightly negative, suggesting
limited residential relocation within the short timeframe of the analysis. The findings point to
a dual adjustment, where the local labour-market tightened modestly whilst regional
commuting functioned as the predominant adjustment channel, increasingly supplying labour
to Kalundborg to meet the heightened demand. These results are consistent with short-run
regional adjustment theory, suggesting that large and geographically concentrated
investments can generate labour-demand shocks that are absorbed through the broader
regional labour market, rather than through immediate in-migration or local resident
employment alone. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Pentelius, Alexander LU and Hansen, William Rasmus
supervisor
organization
course
EOSK12 20261
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Labour-demand shock, regional adjustment, commuting, Kalundborg, Novo Nordisk
language
English
id
9240065
date added to LUP
2026-09-07 13:51:23
date last changed
2026-09-07 13:51:23
@misc{9240065,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the early labour-market response to the investment waves announced
in 2021 and 2023 by Novo Nordisk, aimed at expanding its production capabilities in
Kalundborg, Denmark. We use municipal-level register data on employment, commuting,
unemployment, economic activity and migration from Danmarks Statistik, comparing
conditions prior to the investment waves with labour-market developments observed
thereafter. We document that workplace employment within Kalundborg rose sharply
(+19.3%), largely met by in-commuters, with in-commuting growing by 44.2% over the
observed period. Local resident employment similarly grew by 5.8%, while registered
unemployment declined by 1.4 percentage points, indicating some degree of local absorption,
though the magnitude of these changes was considerably smaller than that of commuting. The
working-age population and net migration remained flat or slightly negative, suggesting
limited residential relocation within the short timeframe of the analysis. The findings point to
a dual adjustment, where the local labour-market tightened modestly whilst regional
commuting functioned as the predominant adjustment channel, increasingly supplying labour
to Kalundborg to meet the heightened demand. These results are consistent with short-run
regional adjustment theory, suggesting that large and geographically concentrated
investments can generate labour-demand shocks that are absorbed through the broader
regional labour market, rather than through immediate in-migration or local resident
employment alone.}},
  author       = {{Pentelius, Alexander and Hansen, William Rasmus}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Drawing from the Region: Early Labour-Market Adjustment to Novo Nordisk’s Expansion in Kalundborg}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}